Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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165 FXUS64 KHGX 132100 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 As expected, a few vort maxes passing through Southeast Texas will continue to support the next round of showers and storms that are currently developing to our west and northwest and moving into portions of Southeast Texas this afternoon through the early evening hours. Tranquil conditions are expected tonight for most inland portions with a slight chance of showers along the coastal areas. Areas of patchy fog could develop over portions of Southeast Texas during the early morning hours. On Sunday, a similar pattern looks to occur. Yesterday, the model solution for Sunday, was too dry in my opinion. Even with vort maxes moving through, CAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg, good mid level lapse rates, and PWs close to 2.0 inches...the models still favored only slight chances for isolated showers and storms and that was mainly over areas east of I-45. Today, models are more aligned with bringing isolated to scattered showers and storms throughout the day. With the expected cloud coverage and rain, we believe a Heat Advisory will not be needed once again. However, it will still feel pretty warm and humid. The highs are expected to be in the low 90s and dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 70s. Thus, dont let your guard down on heat impacts if you plan to work or spend time outdoors. Continue to practice heat safety and drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, and stay out of the sun. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing and try to limit strenuous activities. Never leave children or pets inside vehicles unattended. If its too hot for your hands, then it is also too hot for their paws. Shower and thunderstorm activity will ebb in the evening to early night hours. Tranquil conditions to be expected Sunday night with temperatures decreasing in the mid to upper 70s by early Monday morning. Cotto (24) && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 The area will remain in a general weakness between mid/upper level ridging both off to our west and off to our east Monday and Tuesday, and this should allow for mainly daytime shower and thunderstorm development with daytime highs in a low to mid 90s range. As the rest of the week progresses, the ridge aloft out west looks to amplify/strengthen while a trof develops near our area and off to our east. Expect an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances/coverage as the rest of the week progresses, especially heading on into Thursday and Friday as a cold front sags southward and into our area on Friday. This wetter pattern chance also supports slightly below normal afternoon high temperatures as we head to the end of the week. 42 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 VFR conditions are expected for much of the TAF period. Although the majority of this mornings` SH/TS activity has dissipated and moved away from SE TX, another round of activity can occur later this afternoon into evening hours and may require TEMPOs. Stronger storms will be capable of producing gusty VRB winds, lightning, and briefly reduce vis/cigs. Tranquil conditions expected tonight with light VRB winds for all TAF sites. There may be a small window for some patchy fog to develop early Sun morning and could result in a few hours of MVFR vis/cigs. Fog, if any, should burn off shortly after sunrise. Although light, winds will become SW in the morning and then S in the afternoon. Additional rain chances can be expected Sun. Cotto (24) && .MARINE... Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 A steady but mainly light onshore flow will prevail through the remainder of the weekend and into next week. Seas should remain between 1 and 3 feet, and caution flags are not expected for the foreseeable future. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms this weekend followed by a slightly drier Monday and Tuesday. Better rain chances come back into the picture beginning on Wednesday and persist for the remainder of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 74 93 74 94 / 10 20 0 0 Houston (IAH) 76 92 77 92 / 20 50 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 81 90 81 89 / 10 30 10 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cotto (24) LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...Cotto MARINE...42