709
FXUS64 KHGX 101139
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
639 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

With a robust midlevel ridge over the Western CONUS continuing to
dominate the synoptic pattern for the foreseeable future and
surface high pressure remaining in place to our southeast, the
forecast will generally be characterized by seasonable heat and
humidity along with the daily chance of diurnally driven showers
and thunderstorms. Given the widespread presence of power outages
across Greater Houston as a result of the impacts of Hurricane
Beryl, we continue to maintain reduced thresholds for heat-related
products. As such, the Heat Advisory has been extended through at
least the end of this afternoon with maximum apparent temperatures
reaching around 105. If doing any outdoor work this afternoon, be
sure to remain hydrated and avoid strenuous activities during the
hottest parts of the day if possible.

A stalled frontal boundary will continue to remain situated along
the immediate coast, allowing for fairly widespread shower/storm
coverage over the next several days with the daily inland
propagation of the sea and bay breezes/general airmass
thunderstorm development. As such, afternoon PoP values of 40-50%
remain in the forecast along and south of the I-10 corridor.
Impossible to rule out a stray shower or storm further inland, but
this remains an unlikely possibility.

Daytime highs continue to sit in the lower/mid 90s in the
immediate term, with lows settling in the upper 70s to near 80.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

With high pressure continuing to sit to our SE in the extended
period, the development of a steadier onshore flow pattern will
allow for a plume of deeper moisture to reach the region by the
weekend. With the aforementioned stalled frontal boundary
remaining a factor, diurnal rainfall chances will reach relatively
high levels (50-70%) over the weekend with the highest rainfall
chances remaining concentrated along and south of I-10.
Temperatures remain near seasonable levels, with highs staying in
the low/mid 90s and overnight lows in the mid 70s to near 80.
Afternoon highs at times may be dampened due to the exact
timing/coverage of rainfall, but this will likely be a localized
phenomenon.

Depending on the extent of power outages across the area heading
into the weekend, it`s possible that reduced Heat Advisory
criteria will remain in place into the weekend. If this is the
case, it`s possible that additional Heat Advisories will be issued
during this time. Some indications of a warming trend are present
as we head into the early/middle of next week, as the dominant
ridge over the Western CONUS begins to shift gradually to the
east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period, with
FEW-SCT CU developing by late morning with bases between 3000-6000
FT. A few isolated showers will be possible during the afternoon,
with isolated thunder near LBX/GLS. Any convection should
dissipate by early this evening. Winds will vary, from N-NE this
morning veering E-SE during the afternoon, with speeds less than
10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Light to moderate onshore winds and relatively low seas should
generally keep conditions below advisory criteria through the
remainder of the week and into the weekend. With a stalled frontal
boundary remaining situated offshore, rainfall chances will remain
in the forecast over the next several days with chances being
highest through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  94  71  93  73 /   0   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)  93  76  92  76 /  10   0  40  10
Galveston (GLS)  90  80  88  80 /  30  20  60  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...WFO LCH
MARINE...Cady