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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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709 FXUS64 KHGX 101139 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 639 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday Night) Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 With a robust midlevel ridge over the Western CONUS continuing to dominate the synoptic pattern for the foreseeable future and surface high pressure remaining in place to our southeast, the forecast will generally be characterized by seasonable heat and humidity along with the daily chance of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Given the widespread presence of power outages across Greater Houston as a result of the impacts of Hurricane Beryl, we continue to maintain reduced thresholds for heat-related products. As such, the Heat Advisory has been extended through at least the end of this afternoon with maximum apparent temperatures reaching around 105. If doing any outdoor work this afternoon, be sure to remain hydrated and avoid strenuous activities during the hottest parts of the day if possible. A stalled frontal boundary will continue to remain situated along the immediate coast, allowing for fairly widespread shower/storm coverage over the next several days with the daily inland propagation of the sea and bay breezes/general airmass thunderstorm development. As such, afternoon PoP values of 40-50% remain in the forecast along and south of the I-10 corridor. Impossible to rule out a stray shower or storm further inland, but this remains an unlikely possibility. Daytime highs continue to sit in the lower/mid 90s in the immediate term, with lows settling in the upper 70s to near 80. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 With high pressure continuing to sit to our SE in the extended period, the development of a steadier onshore flow pattern will allow for a plume of deeper moisture to reach the region by the weekend. With the aforementioned stalled frontal boundary remaining a factor, diurnal rainfall chances will reach relatively high levels (50-70%) over the weekend with the highest rainfall chances remaining concentrated along and south of I-10. Temperatures remain near seasonable levels, with highs staying in the low/mid 90s and overnight lows in the mid 70s to near 80. Afternoon highs at times may be dampened due to the exact timing/coverage of rainfall, but this will likely be a localized phenomenon. Depending on the extent of power outages across the area heading into the weekend, it`s possible that reduced Heat Advisory criteria will remain in place into the weekend. If this is the case, it`s possible that additional Heat Advisories will be issued during this time. Some indications of a warming trend are present as we head into the early/middle of next week, as the dominant ridge over the Western CONUS begins to shift gradually to the east. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 633 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period, with FEW-SCT CU developing by late morning with bases between 3000-6000 FT. A few isolated showers will be possible during the afternoon, with isolated thunder near LBX/GLS. Any convection should dissipate by early this evening. Winds will vary, from N-NE this morning veering E-SE during the afternoon, with speeds less than 10 KT. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Light to moderate onshore winds and relatively low seas should generally keep conditions below advisory criteria through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. With a stalled frontal boundary remaining situated offshore, rainfall chances will remain in the forecast over the next several days with chances being highest through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 94 71 93 73 / 0 0 10 0 Houston (IAH) 93 76 92 76 / 10 0 40 10 Galveston (GLS) 90 80 88 80 / 30 20 60 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cady LONG TERM....Cady AVIATION...WFO LCH MARINE...Cady