![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
373 FXUS64 KHGX 190853 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 353 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 211 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 The boundary that moved into the area yesterday will be hanging around SE Texas through tomorrow helping to bring continued chances of showers and thunderstorms. There are a few isolated showers occuring during the predawn hours today, but expect coverage to ramp up during the late morning and through the afternoon thanks to daytime heating. The boundary is fairly diffuse, but the best chances for the afternoon thunderstorms will be along and south of the boundary - currently hanging around Brenham to Conroe to Romayor. The boundary should push further to the coast during the afternoon bringing the rain chances with it. Since the storms will be hit-or-miss, most places won`t see much if any rainfall today, but the places that do could see up to 1 to 2 inches. WPC has maintained the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for areas generally east of I-69 for excessive rainfall. If we get multiple storms over the same area, then we may see some ponding in areas of poor drainage. There will be a lull in the activity overnight with the loss of heating and the boundary staying near or off the coast. Rain chances return Saturday afternoon, but with the boundary likely staying off the coast through the day the coverage will be much more limited. Temperatures through the short term will be fairly consistent. The high temperatures today and Saturday will be in the upper ups to low 90s. Overnight low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s for most of the area with the immediate coast staying in the low 80s. Fowler && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 211 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 A rather stubborn wet weather pattern is expected through much of the long term period with good chances for showers and thunderstorms each day. Southeast TX is expected to be wedged between two mid-upper level ridges for several days and will allow for weakness aloft for an extended period of time. Several pulses of warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico will be making their way into the local region from time to time, increasing PWs to 1.8-2.3 inches. Considering the combination of fairly good instability in place, several vort maxes moving through, and lingering boundaries, multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the next several days are not out of the question. From Sunday to Tuesday, we will likely see a repetitive pattern with showers and storms beginning over the waters and areas near and south of I-10 and then progressing northward and further inland later in the morning to early evening. Although activity will decrease in the evening and early night hours, some isolated showers will still be possible overnight. On Wednesday, an even stronger surge of moisture will move across the region, elevating PWs into the 2.2-2.5 inches range and could make it our rainiest day of the week. We will continue to see rain chances on Thursday. Even though probabilities at this time may not be as high as Wednesday, some of the Global models show slightly stronger vort maxes passing through and may result in slightly higher rain chances. Environmental conditions will be favorable for periods of heavy rainfall and could lead to localized minor flooding and ponding of water on roadways. As we progress through early next week, areas receiving good amounts of rainfall each day could become more and more vulnerable to flood impacts, in particular for areas with well saturated soils. Please keep updated with the latest forecasts and have multiple ways of receiving weather alerts. The good side of having all the rain and cloud coverage is that temperatures will be on the "cooler" side in terms of our typical summer temperatures with highs generally in the upper 80s to low 90s for much of Southeast TX. The highs on Wednesday may even reach the mid 80s in several spots. Unfortunately, with high levels of moisture in place, it will still feel pretty muggy and damp at times. A bad side of all the rainfall, apart from the threat of flooding, is that we may not see the end of these dreaded vampire mosquitos, and you may find yourself fighting them every time you open your home doors or running for your life when getting into your vehicle these next few days. But jokes aside, mosquitos have been known to bring about many diseases. Please make sure to protect yourself and loved ones from mosquitos, and yes...even pets need to be protected from these suckers (pun intended). Cotto (24) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 May see some patchy late night & early morning fog and or MVFR cigs with light winds, wet ground and scattered cloud cover in place. With the region being in the vicinity of the base of mid- upper level trof, a diffuse frontal boundary, and daytime heating/seabreeze...we cannot rule out some isolated to scattered shra & tstms at any time. Hires guidance has been signaling some sct precip development between CXO-GLS in the 9-14z timeframe so added some VCSH`s. Beyond that, confidence is not high enough to include the mention in any individual TAF to provide value. Otherwise, VFR conditions should generally prevail. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 211 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Mainly light onshore flow and seas of 1 to 3 feet will prevail for the next several days. There will be multiple rounds of showers and storms for much of the forecast period and could result in brief moments of stronger winds and elevated seas, in particular in and around strong storms. Cotto (24) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 91 73 93 73 / 10 10 10 0 Houston (IAH) 91 76 92 76 / 50 30 30 10 Galveston (GLS) 90 80 89 81 / 50 50 30 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fowler LONG TERM....Cotto (24) AVIATION...Adams MARINE...Cotto (24)