Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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956 FXUS64 KHGX 020001 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 701 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 3 PM surface observations across SE TX indicate yet another hot and humid afternoon across the region, with most stations reporting temperatures in the mid/upper 90s and dew point values in the low/mid 70s. The presence of a weak boundary over Louisiana has allowed for the development of scattered thunderstorms to our east, which have produced an inch or two or rainfall across portions of E TX and SE LA. As this line of storms shifts slowly westward over the next few hours, we could see locations mainly east of the I-45 corridor picking up some measurable rainfall. However, neither flooding nor severe weather is expected with this activity. Aside from this scattered rainfall, the main weather story continues to surround the potential for excessive heat. Synoptic conditions remain relatively unchanged, with the South Central CONUS well within the grasp of a ~598 dam ridge at 500mb. This has contributed to the hot and relatively rain-free stretch of weather of late, and no major change to the pattern is expected in the immediate term. As such, overnight lows for both today and tomorrow will remain in the upper 70s inland and low 80s along the coast. Tomorrow, afternoon highs will again rise into the mid/upper 90s, though what appears to be slightly better mixing will allow for dew points to concurrently be in the lower 70s. While this will result in heat index values of 108-110 for portions of the area, many locations will be just under advisory thresholds. While the Heat Advisory remains in effect for locations NE/E of Houston, we`ll need to monitor other locations closely for a possible expansion tomorrow. Any rainfall tomorrow will likely be sparse and related to the inland propagation of the sea/bay breezes. Some marginal PoPs remain in the forecast, but rainfall totals will likely be inconsequential with any storms that occur. Cady && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Our normal high temperature this time of the year is in the low 90s and with upper level ridging remaining in place heading towards the weekend, we`ll continue to see high temperatures at least a few degrees above normal. The same applies to our overnight temperatures where we`ll steadily bottom out in the upper 70s/low 80s throughout the long term period, which is about 5F or so above normal. A shorter way of saying all of that is...it`s hot. Daytime temperatures throughout the week will top out mainly in the mid to upper 90s with some spots potentially reaching the 100F mark (most likely to occur in the Brazos Valley). With onshore flow being persistent, humidity will remain elevated so you can probably guess where this is going. Heat index values are expected to be near or exceed the Heat Advisory criteria (108F or greater) through the end of the work week. With decent amounts of subsidence aloft, that will also keep rain chances generally around 20% or so. That is at least till we get to the weekend...which by the way looks to be accompanied by another plume of Saharan dust that moves in Friday. As we head towards the weekend, the main ridge axis shifts to the east as an upper level low (and its subsequent trough) drifts through the Northern Plains and towards the Upper Midwest. The timing of this and how far east the ridge axis shifts may be one of the factors that affects the track of Beryl. We are still not anticipating any impacts from Beryl to Southeast Texas, but it will be something worth monitoring as most model guidance places it in the Bay of Campeche at the end of the work week. Check the "Tropical" section below for additional details on Beryl. With the weakening of the ridge, we`re expecting slightly "cooler" temperatures over the weekend with highs dropping by a few degrees along with a slight increase in rain chances up to 30%. Batiste && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Showers/thunderstorms that formed over Far E/SE TX earlier today did begin to move west this afternoon. This activity, while initially ro- bust, did start to weaken as it moved into our CWA. And now, there`s only a few cells left as this line has moved into the I-45 corridor. So for the 00Z TAFs, did keep a mention of VCSH (and TEMPO group) in for another hour or so. Thereafter, clearing with light and variable winds prevailing. Brief patchy fog/haze along with lower CIGs (MVFR) will be possible around sunrise. Tomorrow should be similar to today with respect to rain chances moving in from the east once again, but coverage may be less widespread. 41 && .MARINE... Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Elevated wave heights from the longer period swells courtesy of Tropical Storm Chris will continue to subside throughout the day. Seas will remain in the 2-4 foot range throughout the remainder of the week as relatively benign marine conditions ensue. Winds will be light with varying wind directions into tonight, but persistent onshore flow returns by Tuesday and prevails going into the weekend. Mariners should monitor the forecast towards end of the week with the potential for another tropical system (Beryl) to move into the Bay of Campeche. This is likely to cause another increase in wave heights over the weekend due to longer period swells. Batiste && .TROPICAL... Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Hurricane Beryl moved through the Windward Islands earlier today as a category 4 hurricane and is continuing to move westward into the Caribbean Sea. Model and ensemble consensus continues to point towards Beryl moving through the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche on Friday. As was previously mentioned in this morning`s tropical discussion, the bulk of the ensembles remain clustered to our south. Quite a bit of uncertainty remains with the forecast this far out, so this will be something to continue to monitor. Please DO NOT place too much stock into one single deterministic model run. At this time, we are not expecting any impacts in Southeast Texas. Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts and updates from the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 77 100 77 98 / 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 80 98 79 95 / 20 10 0 20 Galveston (GLS) 82 93 83 90 / 10 10 10 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335-338-438-439. Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ163-164- 176>179-196-198>200-300. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cady LONG TERM....Batiste AVIATION...41 MARINE...Batiste