Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
105 FXHW60 PHFO 241324 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 324 AM HST Tue Jun 24 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy trades will be maintained through the next several days, with periods of passing windward and mauka showers embedded within. Thereafter, westward propagating ridging builds in east of the islands, resulting in drier conditions, despite possible trade showers continuing for windward and mauka areas. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure prevails well northeast of the islands, maintaining breezy to locally strong trades, however, will begin to weaken over the next several days resulting in weaker trades to more moderate levels. Latest observations showcase increased clouds and embedded showers within the trades, though predominately impacting windward and mauka areas. Latest model guidance continues to support a weak upper-level low and associated trough passing in the vicinity of the state, likely enhancing trade shower activity for Kauai through Wednesday where increased moisture in conjunction with some weak instability will allow for some brief moderate showers, particularly over windward and mountain areas of Kauai. Elsewhere, shower activity remains relatively modest for most locations, but a passing shower or two cannot be ruled out throughout the middle of the week. As the aforementioned upper-level trough exits to the north, upper-level ridging builds in its wake from the east, persisting through at least the weekend. While this should keep conditions drier for much of the islands, expect moderate to locally breezy trades to continue, facilitating the likeliness of light, embedded passing windward and mauka showers. && .AVIATION... Breezy trades prevail across the Hawaiian Islands through the next several days. Expect some low ceilings and limited shower activity over windward and mountain areas, which may lead to MVFR conditions at times. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate turbulence below 8000 feet downwind of island terrain. This AIRMET will likely be needed through at least tomorrow with the breezy trades. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration for windward portions of the Big Island. && .MARINE... High pressure far northeast of the islands will drive fresh to locally strong trade winds today, then weaken slightly during the remainder of the week. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will remain in effect for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island through late this afternoon. The SCA may have to be extended through tonight, but conditions appear to be borderline. Early this morning, nearshore buoys were reporting south swell near 3 feet with a 15 second period. This south swell energy is expected to peak later today or early tonight, then slowly lower through the remainder of this week. Surf along south shores will become elevated during the peak of the swell, but should stay shy of High Surf Advisory criteria. Surf along east facing shores will remain rough today due to the breezy trades, then gradually decline as the trades weaken mid-week and beyond. Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny with mainly background energy through the forecast period. Peak high tides associated with the lunar cycle will lead to minor coastal flooding along shorelines and low lying coastal areas through Thursday. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the daily peak tide each afternoon and may be exacerbated by the ongoing south swell as it peaks later today. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Pierce AVIATION...Pierce MARINE...Thomas