267
FXHW60 PHFO 010148
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
348 PM HST Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate trade winds will continue through tonight with afternoon
sea breezes over sheltered leeward areas. Trades will become
moderate to breezy on Monday and continue through the week with
clouds and passing showers favoring windward and mauka areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor satellite imagery continues to show the upper-level
low north of Kauai moving northwest away from the state this
afternoon. Meanwhile, radar imagery shows some scattered showers
over areas west of Kauai due to lingering instability from the
low. Expect these showers, along with the potential for isolated
thunderstorms, to continue through this evening. Elsewhere, a weak
pressure gradient over the islands have kept moderate trades and
has allowed for weak sea breezes to develop over sheltered leeward
areas. Light showers and limited clouds will impact areas east of
the Kauai Channel tonight.

Guidance continues to show high pressure building north of the
islands this week as the upper-level low weakens and moves further
away from the state. Expect trade winds to become moderate to
breezy on Monday with a return to a more typical summertime trade
wind weather pattern as the ridge builds into the region and
stabilizes the atmosphere. Trades look to potentially become
moderate to locally breezy by mid to late next week as the high
north of the state strengthens. Clouds and showers will tend to
favor windward and mauka areas during this time, with an increase
in coverage and intensity during the overnight and early morning
hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to locally breezy trades deliver limited clouds and
light showers windward and mauka through the period. VFR expected
to prevail. West of Kauai, in the vicinity of Niihau, a few
locally heavy showers or an isolated t-storm or two will be
possible through this evening, but activity will remain well west
of PHLI.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure north of the state will maintain moderate to fresh
trade winds tonight. The trades are expected to strengthen back to
fresh to strong levels on Monday and persist through most of the
week. Small Craft Advisory should return to the typical windy
areas on Monday. A slight uptick of the trades are expected around
Thursday, then it should decline over the weekend as the pressure
gradient over the state weakens.

No significant south swells are expected through this upcoming
week. However, a series of small south-southwest and southeast
swells will keep south facing shores from going flat.

Typical mostly flat summertime conditions will continue along
north facing shores through most of the week. East shore surf
will gradually trend up closer to seasonal levels by around the
middle of this week as the trades strengthen over and upstream of
the islands. A fetch of strong northeast winds well off the
California coast should bring a small northeast (050 to 060
degree) swell late this weekend into early next week. Some of this
swell should wrap into select north facing exposures as well.

Water levels running roughly 0.5 ft higher than normal around the
Big Island combined with the new moon tides could cause minor
flooding issues between July 2nd and July 6th with peak water
levels expected on July 4th. Our last full moon, we did receive
reports of some areas of the coastline becoming inundated with the
high tide such as Coconut Island and Puhi Bay. A Coastal Flood
Statement will likely be needed for the Big Island near the 4th of
July. For the other islands, water levels are running just a
touch above normal and will likely not reach our criteria of 1
foot above the Mean Higher High Water (MHHW).

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ahue
AVIATION...JVC
MARINE...Kino