473
FXHW60 PHFO 060103
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
303 PM HST Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stable moderate trade wind pattern with mainly light windward
showers will prevail through Monday. Increasing trade winds and
slightly wetter conditions are possible during the middle of next
week, with breezy trades continuing into the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Have made some minor changes to the forecast for next week. The
PoPs have been lowered a bit over the windward slopes of the
smaller islands, and boosted over the the windward slopes of the
Big Island. This is in line with the model trend of the incoming
moisture boost being concentrated over the southern end of the
state.

A surface ridge far north of the islands will maintain the trade
wind regime through the upcoming week. Some changes to the
ridge around Tuesday will see an uptick in the wind speeds, with
moderate to locally breezy winds reaching the islands. A mid to
upper level ridge over the islands through the weekend will
maintain the relatively dry conditions. Any showers that do reach
the islands are expected to be focused over the windward slopes of
the islands, with a few showers possible over the leeward slopes
of the Big Island during the afternoon hours.

The GFS and ECMWF continue to show an increase in precipitable
water reaching the islands Tuesday or so, although the focus has
shifted a bit towards the southern end of the state as alluded to
above. Expect a few more showers over the windward sides of the
smaller islands, and a bit more of an uptick over the Big Island.
That being said, as the trade winds increase over the smaller
islands during the first part of the week, some of the showers may
reach some leeward locations.


&&

.AVIATION...
High pressure north of the region will maintain moderate to locally
breezy trade winds through the weekend. Stable trade wind clouds
and showers will favor windward and mauka areas, with some showers
spilling over into leeward areas possible during the overnight
hours. Conditions remain mainly VFR, with brief MVFR possible
under passing showers.

NO AIRMETs are currently in effect.


&&

.MARINE...

Gentle to locally fresh trades will continue through Saturday as
a low northeast of the state further develops, disrupting the
broad surface ridge that is driving the trades. The low will shift
north over the weekend and dissipate next week allowing for the
broad ridge to gradually strengthen north of the state. Typical
moderate to locally strong trades are expected to return during
the first half next week along with Small Craft conditions for the
typically windy zones around Maui County and the Big Island.

Surf will remain small along all shores through the forecast
period. A mix of small, short period south southeast swell and
small, medium period south swell will keep small surf along south
facing shores through tonight. Over the weekend, a short to
medium period southeast swell will become more dominate keeping
some small surf for the better exposed areas. Through much of next
week small, long period south southwest swells will keep south
facing shores from going flat.

Overlapping small, medium period northeast and northwest swells
are expected to arrive Saturday that could provide a small bump
for northern exposures through the weekend. Otherwise, near
normal summertime flat conditions are expected for north facing
shores through the rest of the forecast period. Even though the
tradewind swell will be on a slight decline through the weekend,
the northeast swell could keep small surf along exposed east
facing shores. Typical, choppy east facing shore surf will
gradually build next week as trades strengthen.

The combination of higher than normal water levels, and afternoon
spring tides, continue to result in water levels running over
half a foot above guidance around the Big Island and Maui pushing
water levels above the 1 foot Mean Higher High Water threshold.
This will continue to create minor coastal flooding issues for
both Big Island and Maui into the weekend mainly around each
afternoon peak high tide. Thus, the Coastal Flood Conditions are
borderline around Maui and maybe dropped sooner than the Big
Island coastal zones.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...M Ballard
AVIATION...Ahue
MARINE...Almanza