648
FXUS61 KGYX 140748
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
348 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Relatively drier and hotter air returns today with high pressure
building across the Western Atlantic. Humidity will increase on
Monday and Tuesday before a stronger cold front arrives late
Wednesday with the potential for some showers and thunderstorms.
Cooler and drier conditions arrive behind the front for the end
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Relatively drier air returns today as high pressure passes
through New England and builds off the Eastern Seaboard. Dew
points likely spend most of the day in the mid 60s, but temps
will be on the rise with most spots warming into the low to mid
90s outside of the higher elevations. A seabreeze is likely to
arrive during the afternoon hours, but not before temps rise to
near 90 even along the coast. A mostly dry day is expected, but
an isolated shower can`t be ruled out across the higher terrain.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Mainly clear skies are expected overnight, but valley fog is
likely to develop again overnight. Lows cool into the 60s in
most spots, with the coolest readings across the northern
valleys.

Humidity begins to increase again tomorrow as dew points rise
back into the low 70s. A southwesterly flow pushes temps into
the low to mid 90s again tomorrow in most areas, but a more
pronounced seabreeze and onshore flow keeps the MidCoast as cool
as the 70s tomorrow. The higher terrain also remains slightly
cooler again, with highs there in the low to mid 80s and a few
more clouds.

The combination of temps and dew points away from the cooler
areas leads to heat indices likely pushing into the mid 90s to
low 100s. Heat headlines may be needed for parts of the area.
Decisions on these will come this afternoon after today`s
relatively dry heat. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms
are also possible tomorrow as a weak shortwave trough passes
through during the afternoon hours. Given the heat, an isolated
strong storm can`t be ruled out, with gusty winds being the most
likely impact.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The 500 MB nearly zonal through midweek does nothing to cool us
down, it just reinforces the stream of warm and humid air.
However, a ridge moves onshore into wrn Canada by Monday and
should help a trough develop that deepens toward the Great Lakes
by midweek. This should help push some some cooler (less hot?)
air for the end of the week. 850 MB temps fall briefly to
11-12C, but generally still hover around 13-15 C into next
weekend. So, better than it was, but still on the warmer side.
Models to tend to overdo the cold push in the face of a strong
Atlantic ridge.

Monday will be hot, but Tuesday will be hotter with apparent T
approaching excessive heat advisory criteria, Its still day 3,
and Tds have a way of dropping off sometime, so theres still
some uncertainty but air temps S of the mountains should make it
around 90-95. There are a couple very weak waves that move
through the 500 MB flow Monday and Tuesday, not enough to
suppress the warm air, but enough to help generate some
convection both days, although they will be more likely in the
mtns. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper 60s to low
70s with some mid 70s in S NH and some mid 60s in the mtns.

Wednesday will still be hot but the threat of more clouds as
well as convection ahead of the cold front should help maxes
fall off a couple degrees from Tuesday. Models have been a
little uncertain as to the timing of the front and whether a
wave forms along Wed night into Thu, so confidence is low on
what happens with the front around Wed night or Thu, but should
clear out by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...LIFR to IFR in morning fog at LEB, HIE, and RKD
improve to VFR conditions a few hours after sunrise, with VFR
elsewhere. Valley fog is likely again tonight at HIE and LEB,
but is not expected to be as long lasting as this morning. VFR
prevails tomorrow, but an isolated shower or storm is possible
during the afternoon hours at all terminals.

Long Term...The trend for Monday and Tuesday will be hot days
and mild nights with high humidity and the threat of fog each
night. Also SCT TSRA are possible both afternoons. The next
chance of more widespread flight restrictions will be Wed night
into Thu morning as the cold front pushes through and may stall
just off shore.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Fair conditions prevail as high pressure passes
through New England and builds off the East Coast through
tomorrow. Winds do become gustier in southwesterly flow
tomorrow afternoon. Lingering patchy dense fog this morning
mostly clears by this afternoon.

Long Term...Generally winds/seas stay below SCA levels through
Tuesday night, but could approach SCA gusts late Wed or We night
in advance of a cold front.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Clair
SHORT TERM...Clair
LONG TERM...Cempa