882
FXUS61 KGYX 221904
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
304 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A warm front will push north of the area tonight. This
front will remain near the area through midweek with waves of
low pressure tracking along the front bringing rounds of showers
and thunder through Wednesday. A cold front will push through
the area on Thursday bringing another threat of showers and
storms. High pressure builds in for Friday into the weekend for
a return to dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A warm front continues to drift northward tonight as moisture
increases with a building ridge off the East Coast. Scattered
showers start to reach southern New Hampshire during the evening
hours, but any appreciable rainfall holds off until after
midnight tonight.

The front looks to stall across interior areas, extending from
central New Hampshire into central Maine. This area serves as
the focus for the threat of some heavier rainfall and possibly
localized flooding concerns. The threat looks low, and
antecedent conditions are well positioned to absorb several
inches of rain in most spots. It would likely be toward daybreak
should several rounds of heavier downpours affect the same
areas that any problems would start to arise. Elsewhere,
showers looks likely through the overnight hours, but don`t look
to be a widespread across southern coastal areas, or toward the
Canadian border. Patchy fog likely develops along the coastline
tonight and moves inland into central Maine as the moisture
increases overnight. A few thunderstorms are also possible, but
most of the rain likely falls without thunder tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Most of the shower activity comes to an end during the morning
hours, with mainly cloudy and humid conditions for the late
morning to mid afternoon hours. Some breaks of sun are likely,
especially across southern New Hampshire, which helps temps warm
into the mid 70s to low 80s across most of the forecast area.
Along the immediate coast and across the north see the coolest
conditions, with highs likely topping out near 70 degrees.
Patchy fog and low clouds may also linger much of the day along
the coastline, especially toward the MidCoast.

Isolated showers likely pop up in the afternoon, with the best
chance across the higher terrain. This continues into the
overnight hours tomorrow as a moist southerly flow helps to keep
scattered showers ongoing at times in the vicinity of the
stalled front. A few showers are possible outside of these areas
as well, but most the looks to be rain-free with patchy fog.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Overview:  Relatively progressive flow across the NE CONUS continues
in the extended period with the beginning of the period east coast
ridging being replaced by a mid-level trough by Thursday.  500mb
ridging returns by the end of the weekend as a ridge amplifies over
the Ohio River Valley bringing a return to above normal temperatures
by the end of the period.

Impacts: Overall low impact forecast period with the potential
for dense fog on the coast during the day on Wednesday.
Localized heavy rainfall and thunderstorms will be likely on
Thursday as the cold front swings through, but current severe
threat and flash flooding is relatively low.

Forecast Details: Wednesday begins with south to southwest onshore
flow which could bring coastal fog or marine stratus inland as the
area is sandwiched between the approach Great Lakes trough and the
slightly anomalous Bermuda high off the Eastern Seaboard.  Strong
moisture convergence over the mountains will most lead to inland
showers and isolated thunderstorms, but looks to be isolated in
coverage. Looks like a cloudy day overall with temperatures in the
upper 70s along with humid conditions. By Thursday low-level
flow becomes more southwesterly as the shortwave trough and
surface cold front approach. Showers and thunderstorms will
occur as a 120KT jet streak moves across the region. Shear
profiles look good, so severe threat will depend on surface
heating and how much cloud cover there is, which currently looks
like plentiful, but will have to watch trends on heating
potential. Cold front pushes through Thursday evening with
slightly drier airmass in place. By Friday a few instability
showers on NW flow could be possible in the mountains, with
mostly sunny skies downstream of the mountains leading to a nice
day. Weekend looks nice as surface and upper level ridging
takes hold over the Northeast. It will be trending hotter
though, with upper 80s for highs by Sunday. Dewpoints will
remain relatively dry though through the weekend, so it will
remain mostly comfortable.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions end tonight as showers and low
clouds move into the area after midnight. Coastal terminals, AUG
and LEB likely see conditions drop to IFR late tonight.
Interior terminals see conditions drop to mainly MVFR in
showers. Fog is also likely at RKD and AUG. Conditions improve
to at least MVFR by late morning tomorrow, except at RKD where
low clouds linger most of the day. A period of VFR is likely at
at least MHT, CON, and PSM during the afternoon. IFR conditions
are possible again tomorrow night with low clouds, patchy fog,
and scattered showers.

Long Term...IFR conditions due to low ceilings could be possible on
Wednesday due to a onshore flow marine push. Cold front and storms
are expected on Thursday with tempo MVFR conditions for all TAF
terminals.  High pressure returns Friday into the weekend with no
aviation weather impacts expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...A warm front lifts through waters tonight and
stalls across New England. Locally dense fog develops overnight,
and lingers into tomorrow night. Conditions remain below SCA
levels.


Long Term...Marine stratus and fog are possible on Wednesday over the
coastal waters leading to visibility restrictions. By Thursday a
cold front will approach with veering wind flow from the SW to NW by
Thursday night.  An isolated thunderstorm can`t be ruled out during
the frontal passage. Offshore flow on Friday with surface high
pressure building into the region. High pressure will dominate the
weather pattern this weekend, with light flow becoming southwest by
Sunday. Seas are expected to remain below SCA during this
period.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Clair
SHORT TERM...Clair
LONG TERM...Dumont
AVIATION...Clair/Dumont
MARINE...Clair/Dumont