713
FXPQ50 PGUM 312202
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
802 AM ChST Sat Jun 1 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite shows partly cloudy skies and isolated showers within
the coastal waters this morning. Altimetry this morning shows
combined seas between 3 and 5 feet, composed mainly of east trade-
wind swell and wind waves.

&&

.Discussion...
No changes to the going forecast made overnight. A dry trade-wind
pattern remains in place across the Marianas. An analysis of CIMSS
MIMIC H2O satellite data shows an area of higher PWAT values ranging
from 2.10 to 2.57 inches moving toward the Marianas with the head
just east of the Saipan and Tinian coastal waters. Latest model
analysis continue a relatively dry trade-wind pattern will continue
through the early part of next week. Winds may be light enough
around the middle of the week for some island convection.

&&

.Marine...
Light to gentle trades are expected to prevail through the middle of
next week. Combined seas of 3 to 5 feet are expected to persist
through the middle of next week.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
An active Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) fragment stretches
east-northeastward from west south-southwest of Chuuk to Pohnpei to
east of Kwajalein. A trade-wind trough is also evident across
Kwajalein and extending southward to just west of Majuro Atoll.
Showers and storms persist across both features with the most focused
convection near the trade-wind trough. A less active stretch looks
possible this weekend before another pulse up along the ITCZ is
forecasted early next week across eastern Micronesia and into Chuuk.
Towards the latter half of the week the ITCZ looks to weaken and the
pattern quiets down across eastern Micronesia.

Little change in thought with the marine forecast. Combined seas of
4 to 6 ft prevail across the region. Seas could build into the 5 to 7
ft range across the RMI later this weekend. Kalo Buoy in RMI shows
combined seas mainly 3 to 5 feet.

&&

.Western Micronesia for Palau and Yap...
Little change from the previous forecast for Yap and Palau. Calm and
dry conditions should persist through the weekend and into next week
for much of western Micronesia. The caveat is the potential for island
convection across Yap and Palau over the next couple of days with light
winds forecast through much of the column and PWATS greater than 2.00
inches.

Gentle to moderate trades and benign seas conditions are expected to
continue across the region through the weekend. Palau/Ngaraard Buoy
shows combined seas mainly 2 to 4 feet from the east.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Kelly
Micronesia: Williams