378
FXUS62 KGSP 092200
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
600 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front associated with the remnants of Beryl will usher in
drier air Wednesday into Thursday. Moisture gradually returns Friday
into the weekend, bringing an increase in afternoon and evening
showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 5:25 PM EDT Tuesday: Convective coverage remains minimal
across the western Carolinas early this evening as the more wide-
spread convection remains to our SW and SE. Despite warm mid-lvls
and fairly modest lapse rates, the latest mesoanalysis still has
1000 to 2000 J/kg of sfc-based CAPE across much of our area. The
main limiting factor currently appears to be an overall lack of
sfc triggers to kick off new cells. Nonetheless, cells that do
initiate should have no problem growing and producing lightning
and gusty winds. PWs remain 2"+ across much of the area, which
enhances the potential for localized torrential rain with any
cells that develop.

Otherwise, things should quiet down tonight as they typically do
during the summer months, and give way to partly cloudy skies over-
night. The mountain valleys, especially the Little Tennessee, can
expect some morning fog and low stratus around daybreak, but nothing
to write home about.  Tomorrow, sustained mid-level warming will have
produced a cap around 700mb, which based on the latest round of CAMs
should be enough to inhibit convective initiation tomorrow; chance
PoPs are warranted, but with low confidence. Once again, whatever
does develop should pose a low risk of either severe weather or
flooding rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Tuesday... A lee trough associated with the
remnants of T.C. Beryl will set up across the forecast area
Wednesday night and Thursday creating a brief period of much lower
dewpoints...possible dropping into the upper 50s on Thursday
afternoon in the western part of the forecast area...before
recovering somewhat on Friday. This drier air mass will limit storm
potential Wednesday night through Thursday night. A weak surface
trof will form along the coast pushing the moisture and storm
chances back into the area on Friday.

High temperatures will be slightly above climo on Thursday across
the area. With increased cloud cover on Friday in eastern areas,
expect highs below climo while they will remain slightly above climo
generally to the west of Interstate 26.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Tuesday...Mid level ridging will be in place
across the region through the weekend into early next week. We
expect temperatures to climb a little each day getting back above
climo...reaching into the mid to upper 90s in the Piedmont and
lower 90s in the mountain valleys by early next week. Pops will
be pretty close to climo also through this period with slightly
higher chances in the mountains as compared to the Piedmont each
afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions continue this afternoon
with widely scattered convection already escaping into the Pied-
mont against the wishes of virtually every hi-res guidance source
available.  Although the environment isn`t great, still expect
many of these cells to produce lightning as the afternoon wears
on and the heat intensifies.  With little storm motion expected
and no clear trigger...it`s unclear what time the thunder risk
will be greatest for KCLT and just as unclear how long it`ll last.
So included a TEMPO for the next four hours, but that`ll likely need
adjustment with coming AMDs.  Winds`ll stay out of the S all day
and overnight with low probability of any gusting; overnight, winds
will die down and skies will clear out.  Most of the statistical
guidance brings some MVFR into the mountain valleys overnight,
and although it`s more iffy at KHKY, the fact that we`re getting
a little more rain than anticipated in the Piedmont bumps this
forecaster in the direction of keeping a mention of MVFR fog at
both KAVL and KHKY in the morning.

Outlook: An active summertime pattern continues for most of the
week, leading to showers/thunderstorms and possible restrictions
each afternoon/evening. Fog or low stratus may develop each morning,
especially over areas that received rain the previous day.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ026-028-029.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ037-057-
     070>072-082.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ008>014-019-
     105>107-109.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT/MPR
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...JPT/MPR