776
FXUS63 KGRR 171925
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
325 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drying out this evening

- Warm and dry weather ahead

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

- Drying out this evening

PWAT values drop steadily into the late afternoon hours with
values falling to around 0.75 inches. Forecast soundings and
bufkit overviews show considerable dry in the mid to upper levels
during this period. Satellite imagery shows the skies clearing out
Thus we will feature mostly clear conditions for tonight. Decent
radiational cooling is expected, especially after midnight when
the winds slowly diminish. We wil feature well below normal
temperatures for tonight with many locations seeing overnight lows
in the low to mid 50`s.

- Warm and dry weather ahead

High pressure will continue to build over the region this weekend
and into next week. This will allow for a nice period of overall
dry/pleasant weather with fairly comfortable summertime
temperatures and humidities. Daytime max temps will hover around
normal through this period.

  The sole caveat will be a set of boundaries that will sweep
through the region Sunday evening and Monday evening. These will be
fueled by an upper level trough extending from northeastern
Canada, though, latest models have it being a fairly open and weak
wave by time it reaches us. There is some mid level moisture. The
question is can it saturate the low levels and will there be
enough warm air to overcome the dry stable air mass in place. So
can`t rule out isolated showers/storms Sunday evening and Monday
evening.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR conditions will dominate the weather today. The main exception
is isolated showers and storms this afternoon, especially at LAN
and JXN. A weak line of showers is moving through LAN and
expecting storms there between 1630Z and 1900Z. This same line
will move just north of JXN and any storms that form should be
north of the airport. Northwest winds increasing to 10 to 20 kts
this afternoon then diminishing to less than 10 kts after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

The winds and waves have increased steadily this afternoon and
many sites are showing wind gusts in the 15 to 25 knot range with
locally higher values around Muskegon. Waves have built up to 3.5
to 4 feet in the nearshore waters based on the buoy`s but the
north sides of the piers were seeing higher values. The swim and
boat risk has increased considerably as a result and the hazardous
conditions will persist into tonight. Water temperatures were
warm, generally in the low to mid 70`s.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ037-043-050-
     056-064-071.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJS/Ceru
AVIATION...Ceru
MARINE...MJS