163
FXUS63 KGLD 062335
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
535 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather continues for portions of the area through 800
 PM CDT.

- Showers and storms are forecast to linger over the area
  tonight and tomorrow. Most of these would be sub-severe, but
  would need to watch for an isolated hail threat.

- A gradually warming, but overall tranquil, pattern is expected
  to move into the region starting early in the workweek.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 355 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

With the dryline having pushed through most of the CWA a bit
quicker than expected, have canceled the Severe Thunderstorm
watch for all but Greeley, Wichita, Logan and Gove counties.
These counties might be canceled over the next couple of hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 335 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Across the region this afternoon, courtesy of a dryline moving
through the region, showers and strong to severe thunderstorms are
currently impacting locales south of a line from Norton, Kansas down
to the Russell Springs, Kansas area. Temperatures as of 300 PM MDT
are ranging widely based on areas receiving/not receiving
rainfall/having cloud cover. The range is 90s west into the 60s
through 80s east. West and north of the dryline, winds are
northwesterly with gusts 25-35 mph at times. Ahead of the dryline,
south-southeast gusting 20-30 mph at times, not in any
thunderstorms.

The main weather threats for the short term period are going to
focus on the strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening and
again on Sunday.

Currently, the region is under NW flow aloft per the latest RAP40
500mb analysis. The dryline over the eastern portion of the CWA
continues a slow E/SE trek kicking up strong to severe storms.
Currently we have had reports of 60-80 mph winds and large hail.
Rainfall amounts have gone an inch plus in any of the slow moving
storms. SPC continues a Slight Risk for severe in the eastern CWA
which is working out well. Western portions of the CWA may be close
to clearing in the next couple hours with all activity east.

The latest CAMs continue to show around 00z Sunday for much if not
all of the storms to exit the CWA as the dryline pushes south. A low
forming on the western edge of the dryline overnight will move into
southeastern Colorado. This will allow for a wind shift to more east-
southeasterly over the area. The result will be increased low level
moisture. Another 500/700mb shortwave moves through the area tonight
allowing for a rekindling of showers and even some storms from east
to the west. Model soundings do show the potential for some
elevated severe towards 06z Sunday with the shortwave passage.
The 40-60% chance for precip in the south this afternoon, will
increase to a 30-50% chance overnight. Hail and wind threats do
exist.

A 40-60% chance for storms on Sunday as daytime heating
commences. Right now, the best instability with be south of the
Interstate closest to the remnants of the dryline/boundary. This
is where SPC continues to carry a Marginal Risk for severe during
the afternoon/early evening hours. There is a low wind/hail risk
but the bigger factor will be locally heavy rainfall potential as
the current dry airmass for most locales behind the dryline will
see PW values up to 1-1.5". This could be problematic for eastern
locales that have already seen heavy rainfall. There is no WPC
Excessive Rainfall outlook for Sunday.

All activity will continue on a north to south push overnight as a
surface ridge builds in from the north. Expecting 20% chance for
rw/trw to persist south of I-70 Sunday night, then as winds shift
southeast towards Monday morning, some potential for linger showers
in the southwest portion of the CWA before ending during the late
morning. High pressure becomes more dominate through the day with
increasing temps, but will be highly dependent on how fast clouds
clear out over the area mainly south of I-70.

For temps, daytime highs for Sunday will range mainly in the upper
70s, with a few isolated areas of 80F. Going into Monday, slightly
warmer with upper 70s to mid 80s expected. Overnight lows for
tonight will range from the mid 50s west into the lower 60s east.
Sunday night, cooler with lower 50s west into the mid and upper 50s
east. And for Monday night, mid 50s west into the upper 50s east.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

From the latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF, the main focus in the
extended period will be on the large dome of high pressure at 500mb
that will sit over the western portion of the country, with an
eventual eastward push into the Rockies towards the end of next
week. This will provide a persistent NW flow aloft.

At the surface, a general southerly flow will ensue with high
pressure east and a lee side trough over the eastern Rockies. The
flow does tighten towards the end of the week for some increased
gust potential into the 20-25 mph range. These conditions will
general provide the region with a mostly dry week with increasing
near to above normal temps. The only chance for any precipitation
will occur Wednesday and Wednesday night as a weak 500-700mb
shortwave moves across the CWA on the east side of the upper ridge.
The GFS/ECMWF do differ on the strength of this, but some
instability is present, so have a scattered 15-20% chance in during
the day, with only a 15% chance south of highway 40 during the early
evening hours.

For temps, highs on Tuesday on through Thursday will range in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. Going into Friday, the region will see a
range in the mid to some upper 90s in spots. Finally to start off
next weekend, highs will range in the mid to upper 90s. Some
isolated spots could reach the 100F mark.

Overnight lows from Monday night through Wednesday night will have a
range from the mid 50s west into the lower 60s east. Warmer
conditions will ensue for the latter portion of the week with lower
to mid 60s Thursday night, the 60s on Friday night and Saturday
night. All of these evenings will have a trend with warmest temps in
the eastern portion of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR to MVFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Gust front moving
southwest will cause winds to be from the northeast behind it.
The dry line is also retrograding behind the gust front. Winds
behind the dry line are turning to the southeast.

Overnight elevated thunderstorms may form. Confidence is too low
at this time to put them in the TAF. However they may begin to
form as early as 7z. More widespread shower activity should
move over the sites closer to 12z.  Storm activity will end
from north to south during the afternoon.

Otherwise easterly winds should turn more to the north by 15z,
and remain there through the rest of the day.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JTL