927
FXUS63 KGLD 041959
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
159 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog may develop through the mid morning hours today.

- Breezy during the day today, but winds should subside this
  evening and allow for a mild evening with temperatures in the
  60`s and generally clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1249 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

For the 4th of July, its looking like a fairly nice day across the
area. The forecast calls for the area to shift to the back side of
the upper troughing with high surface pressure moving in behind the
front. With drier air moving in with the front, mostly sunny skies
are expected today along with mild temperatures around the low 80`s.
The main inconvenience is the front`s passage is forecast to increase
winds out of the north during the day to around 20 mph with gusts
around 25 to 40 mph.

By this evening, the pressure gradient should weaken over the area
and help winds become mainly calm around or shortly after sunset.
Temperatures should quickly lower into the 60`s with mostly clear
skies. Will need to keep an eye out for a pop up storm off the
higher terrain in Eastern Colorado with the northwesterly flow, but
the overall drier air is keeping chances around 15% or less. Even if
a storm did form, it would likely be isolated and short lived.
Overall, pretty good conditions for any fireworks.

Tomorrow, the relatively mild conditions are forecast to continue
with the upper trough still impacting the area and keeping us in
northwest flow. With drier air forecast to remain over the area,
skies should be mostly sunny with temperatures warming into the
80`s. Winds should be lighter as the higher pressure diffuses to the
northeast with speeds around 10 mph from the northwest. With the
northwest flow, will have to watch for storms again later tomorrow,
but chances remain low with the drier air in place. Even if storms
did form, they should be sub-severe and isolated to maybe
scattered.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

From the latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF, a strong amplified 500mb
ridge sits over the western portion of the country Sunday night with
a slow movement eastward towards the central Rockies by mid to late
week. This will allow a northwest flow aloft to transition slowly to
weakening winds as the dome of high pressure begins to exert
influence into the central Plains. There will be a few weak
shortwaves that will work southward along the eastern side of the
ridge, impacting portions of the area.

At the surface, high pressure pushing south into the region will
push up against a frontal boundary and associated surface low in SE
Colorado. Will continue to see 20-40% chances for rw/trw to impact
mainly areas south of the Interstate. Models do differ on the
position of the building ridge creating some uncertainty as to the
areal coverage of pops in the CWA. So will continue the 20-30%
chances for northern areas.

High pressure in place for Monday and Monday night providing the
region with a dry yet warm day. By Tuesday, the next shortwave will
interact with southerly flow over the area as low pressure sets up
over the Front Range. Weak instability ahead of the low will trigger
a 20% chance for rw/trw, but expands eastward during the evening
hours as the low moves into the CWA.

This low will meander over Kansas going into Wednesday as high
pressure builds south once again. Moisture around the vicinity of
the low and front remnants will bring a 20% chance to the area by
Wednesday evening, giving way to a hot day by thursday as high
pressure settles over the area.

For temps, going into the beginning of next week, Monday`s highs
will range in the lower to mid 80s. Going into Tuesday and
Wednesday, upper 80s to lower 90s are expected. By next Thursday, a
bit hotter with lower to mid 90s expected.

Overnight lows will see a slight warming trend as well as next week
progresses. Sunday night will have a range in the 50s, warmest east.
Upper 50s to lower 60s for Monday and Tuesday nights. Wednesday
night has a range from the upper 50s to mid 60s, followed by lower
to mid 60s for next Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 957 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Both terminals (KGLD/KMCK) will see VFR conditions through the
forecast periods. For winds, northerly around 15-25kts through
00z Friday, then north-northeast around 10kts. From about
02z-15z both terminals go light/variable then northwest 5-10kts
by 14z-15z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN