Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
034 FXUS63 KGLD 070926 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 326 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms are forecast through the early evening today. A storm or two may become severe with large hail or a severe wind gust. - A gradually warming, but overall tranquil, pattern is expected to move into the region starting early in the workweek. Well above average temperatures are forecast towards the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 324 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Current observations show storms and showers generally moving east along and east of Highway 83. Storms have been forming in an area of moisture advection ahead of an upper shortwave that is pushing through the area. Current expectation is for storms to continue to form through the early morning and morning hours, though coverage is in question and might be more isolated than some guidance is suggesting (scattered clusters across most of NW KS/SW NE). Severe weather chances remain very low with storms having generally been efficient rain makers instead of hail makers. This pattern is likely to continue so only an isolated chance for severe hail is expected through the morning. Severe wind gusts are unlikely with weak microburst parameters and overall flow generally below 45 kts. Storm coverage is forecast to begin decreasing through the afternoon as the little shortwave moves off and to the east. With some breaks in the clouds, temperatures should be able to warm towards 80, though most of the area should stay in the 70`s (especially for those who remain under cloud cover). Lower level moisture is also forecast to begin decreasing with winds shifting to out of the north. Even with the decrease in low level moisture, another round of storms is possible off the Palmer Divide in Eastern Colorado as the main trough axis begins to swing through. Forecast parameters ahead of this line remain fairly marginal with around 1000-1500 J/KG of CAPE and DCAPE below 1000 J/KG. However, with effective shear around 40-45 kts and downshear vectors nearing 50 kts, an instance or two of marginally severe wind gusts or hail seems possible with this batch. These storms are currently favored from Wray to Leoti and areas west. For tonight, storms are forecast to end through the early night as the trough axis swings east of the area and drier air moves in with northerly flow. Skies would then slowly clear and allow lows to drop into the 50`s and 60`s near sunrise. Tomorrow, is forecast to be a fairly mild day as the area transition to the backside of the upper trough with broad high pressure across the area. With this, mostly sunny skies are forecast with highs warming into the low 80`s. Winds are forecast to be fairly light from the north. There may be a stray shower/storm in Eastern Colorado that develops off the higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 324 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 For the long term period, the period is forecast to be largely dictated by upper ridging, leading to above average temperatures and relatively drier conditions. For Tuesday through Thursday, the area is forecast to remain roughly between an upper ridge over the west and the upper trough over the east. This would keep the area in northwest flow aloft and allow a few shortwaves to move over the area. However, with relatively dry air forecast, skies should generally be clear short of a few chance for evening storms from Eastern Colorado. Highs are forecast to generally be in the low to mid 90`s. Friday on is forecast to see the upper ridge move over the Central CONUS and be the primary driver of weather conditions. Well above average temperatures approaching 100 are forecast and relatively dry conditions are forecast to remain. There may still be a few showers/storms try and develop off the higher terrain in Eastern colorado, but the forecast lack of synoptic forcing and moisture should keep them limited. Will have to watch for critical fire conditions through the long term period as RH is forecast to drop into the teens. However, the weak pressure gradient that is forecast should keep winds generally below critical thresholds. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1051 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 VFR to MVFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Confidence continues to increase for strong to severe thunderstorm to occur tonight through Sunday morning. The coverage of these storms is still not clear. The best chance seems to be close to 12z through 16z or so. The MVFR ceiling will mainly impact KGLD. As the lower ceilings move in, so will the storm potential. Winds will be rather erratic given the storm activity. Storm activity will end from west to east beginning around 18z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...KAK AVIATION...JTL