606
FNUS75 KGJT 111715
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Toner Creek...Roaring Fork Fire Rescue Authority
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1115 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1100 MDT on August 11.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Heavy monsoonal activity will support numerous showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Storms will flourish by
mid to late afternoon with gusty outflow winds, frequent lightning
and periods of heavy rain possible. A more organized line of
storms is projected to develop south of the spot late this
evening, however, strong outflow winds may still impact the fire`s
behavior. There may be a brief lull in showers late tonight/early
Monday morning, until convection redevelops tomorrow afternoon.
The increase in storm coverage tomorrow returns the same threats
as expected today.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Scattered showers
                    and thunderstorms.
CWR.................30 percent.
Max temperature.....76-81.
Min humidity........30-40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms this afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair increasing to good in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low.
LAL.................4.
Mixing height.......5000 ft AGL increasing to 7200 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 14 mph.
Clearing Index......940.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
CWR.................50 percent.
Min temperature.....49-54.
Max humidity........80-90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 3 to 8 mph shifting to the east
                    overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair decreasing to poor (13000 knot-ft)
                    overnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low.
LAL.................3 until 1900, then 4 until 2300, then 3 until
                    2400, then 1.
Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL decreasing to 1900 ft AGL
                    overnight.
Transport winds.....South 10 mph.
Clearing Index......510 decreasing to 130 overnight.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    cloudy (85-95 percent). Scattered rain showers
                    and isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then
                    rain showers and numerous thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................40 percent.
Max temperature.....75-80.
Min humidity........36-41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 3 to 8 mph shifting to the west
                    in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair.
Haines Index........3 or very low.
LAL.................1 until 0900, then 3 until 1200, then 5.
Mixing height.......7200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 mph.
Clearing Index......510 increasing to 860 in the afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...Erin Walter
Requested by...Lt. Paul Blangsted
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2420064.0/GJT
.DELDT 08/11/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL pblangsted@roaringforkfire.org