667
FNUS75 KGJT 160303
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Landfill fire...Gunnison Fire Dept
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
903 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2200 MDT on July 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A few showers on the terrain this evening could send outflows
across the fire. However, shower activity is expected to wane
quickly after sunset. Warm and dry conditions continue Tuesday and
Wednesday. Localized periods of critical fire weather conditions
are possible thanks to gusty outflow winds from thunderstorms
combined with low afternoon relative humidities. Afternoon
thunderstorms will favor the terrain Tuesday and Wednesday and
be capable of small hail and outflows up to 50 mph.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....48-53.
Max humidity........73-78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East-southeast winds 5 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4000-5000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 10 mph shifting to the southeast 5
                    mph overnight.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of rain
                    showers through the day. Chance of
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................20 percent.
Max temperature.....79-84.
Min humidity........21-26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 mph increasing to west-northwest 15 mph in
                    the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the morning. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good increasing to excellent in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate.
LAL.................1 until 1000, then 2 until 1200, then 4.
Mixing height.......7300 ft AGL increasing to 11100 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 13 mph.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    mostly clear (10-20 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the evening.
CWR.................10 percent.
Min temperature.....46-51.
Max humidity........80-85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 10-12 mph shifting to the east
                    overnight 5 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair decreasing to poor (6000 knot-ft)
                    overnight.
Haines Index........5 or moderate.
LAL.................4 until 2100, then 3 until 2400, then 1.
Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL decreasing to 800 ft AGL overnight.
Transport winds.....Northeast 10 mph shifting to the east
                    overnight.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent) then becoming mostly
                    cloudy (75-85 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....79-84.
Min humidity........24-29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 mph shifting to the northwest
                    in the afternoon 10-15 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.
Haines Index........5 or moderate.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 5.
Mixing height.......7100 ft AGL increasing to 9500 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 mph shifting to the northwest in
                    the afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...Lucas Boyer
Requested by...Fire Chief
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2418150.4/GJT
.DELDT 07/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL bbowen@gunnisonco.gov