230
FXUS65 KGJT 080944
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
344 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers/storms may form over the San Juans today.
  Elsewhere, partly cloudy skies and the usual afternoon
  breezes are expected.

- A warmup begins Tuesday and continues through the end of the
  week. Thursday and Friday will be hot as highs reach the upper
  90s/low to mid 100s for many areas.

- Moisture may return over the weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 214 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Starting to sound like a broken record thanks to that broad area
of high pressure that remains centered over southern
California. Yep, it`s still there. Despite a brief wind shift
to northeasterly this morning because of a weak trough pushing
through, north through northwesterly flow will remain across the
CWA. Speaking of, that weak trough caused some gusty winds in
the Uinta Basin and the Grand Valley for a few hours early this
morning with some gusts reaching near 35 mph. As far as the rest
of today is concerned, we`ll see similar temperatures as those
we saw yesterday, and some lighter winds with the usual
afternoon gusts of 20 mph, give or take. A few showers, maybe a
quick rumble of thunder, over the San Juans down into the
Pagosa Springs area also can`t be ruled out. Some CAPE in that
general area indicates some instability and as the weak trough
moves through, this should bring enough lift to fire off this
convection. The HRRR and NAMNEST are also on board so the NBM
solution of 20 to 30% chance for this convection looks
reasonable. Quiet conditions move in overnight.

Tuesday, the high pressure slowly moves eastward and this will
be the beginning of a noticeable warmup. Triple digit highs will
be common across central and southeastern Utah with upper
80s/low 90s for the northern and southern valleys. The Grand
Valley will reach the upper 90s. Again, this is just the start
of the warmup. As far as sensible weather is concerned, minor
disturbances moving around the high pressure will allow
instability to be released again bringing some minor convection
to the San Juans but also along the Divide all the way up to the
Wyoming border (20% chance). Elsewhere, partly cloudy skies and
the usual afternoon breezes are on tap.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 214 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The heatwave baking our neighbors in the Great Basin will slowly
envelope the West Slope this week. Our desert valleys in eastern
Utah will see triple digit highs develop by Wednesday and remain
there through the extended period with some hope for clouds by next
Sunday. Elsewhere, temperatures will trend 10-20 degrees over July
climatology. Record highs this week for Grand Junction Regional
Airport hover around 105 degrees through the forecast period.
Present forecasts find us under that mark, but close enough to keep
an eye to the forecast, especially for those who find excessive heat
to be a problem for their health, etc. All of this heat is the
product of a stubborn high pressure center that will drift east
starting Wednesday, which is when we expect the Grand Valley to
topple the 3 digit mark and stay there through next weekend. Hot and
dry will be the dominant forecast concern this week, but thankfully,
winds under the high pressure center will remain light enough to
keep critical fire weather conditions muted. As noted here
yesterday, the incursion of some moisture from the east over our
southern mountains will pose a forecast challenge each afternoon.
Dry surface conditions are certainly going to wreak havoc on
rainfall potential, but considering we saw some light rain on
Monarch Pass this morning, there is certainly a realistic chance for
rain along the southern Divide each afternoon given the arrival of
moisture. Area high temperatures look to top out Friday or Saturday.
This will coincide with remnants of Beryl out of the picture out
east, which allows the Bermuda high to build back westward. Models
are picking up on another monsoonal push feeding northward to the
Four Corners late Saturday and into Sunday. Hopefully, the increase
in cloud cover and a scattered shower or two will come to fruition
and knock back the excessive heat on Sunday and into Monday. For
now, it would be best to find a cool spot to ride out the heat this
week and if your work or play is outside then plan accordingly.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Not much change to report for the next TAF period. A weak
shortwave has brought some northeasterly gusts to the terminals
when we normally expect nocturnal drainage winds to setup. This
will subside in the coming hours and winds will return to their
overnight terrain driven patterns. Skies will remain mostly
clear over the next 24 hours. Winds will pick up from the north
again Monday, but remain less gusty than today, with 15-25 mph
winds expected through Monday afternoon.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT