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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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450 FXUS65 KGJT 061722 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1122 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - With high pressure in control, dry, warm, sunny, and breezy conditions will occur for the weekend. - Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for NE UT and NW CO. Added CO Fire Zone 202 and UT Fire Zone 490 as critical fire weather conditions will shift a bit further south. - Monsoon moisture may return to the region towards the end of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 158 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Warm and dry conditions remain the rule as high pressure off to our west remains in control. Broad west through northwesterly flow continues across the area while waves of energy drop down from Montana and Wyoming. Previous model runs suggested a chance for some precip along the Divide but latest runs have shifted this precip further eastward keeping our entire CWA dry. We`ll see a few shallow clouds over the higher terrain this afternoon and that will be about it. A weak jet streak will be approaching the area today and with deeper mixing expected, we can expect some gusty winds of 20 to 30 mph, maybe a bit higher at times. For those areas with critical fuels, critical fire weather conditions will be met as described in the fire weather section below. Sunday, more of the same as the jet streak moves more directly over the CWA. Chances do increase (20 to 40% chance) for a few showers or storms along the Divide but coverage is lackluster at best so nothing to get too excited about. We`ll see another day of gusty winds, shifting a bit further south favoring areas south of the I-70 corridor, especially the San Juans and southern valleys. Again, look for a few clouds over the higher terrain, similar to today. Neutral advection will also keep temperatures right about what we saw yesterday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 158 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The amplified ridge of high pressure baking the West persists Monday. Fortunately for our temperatures, we remain under the northwesterly flow on the eastern flank of this ridge. Afternoon highs will remain near normal to just under as we dodge the subsidence bringing record highs to our west. Deep mixing will keep afternoons breezy and low relative humidities will turn an eye towards marginal critical fire weather conditions all week. A weak moisture signature returns to the picture Tuesday afternoon as some more monsoonal flow attempts to sneak beneath the ridge. This might be enough for a shower along our southern Divide mountains, but eroding the dry air mass will take more than this. A series of waves comes ashore over the PACNW Wednesday and begins to degrade the ridge. Models keep the weak moisture working northward over the Four Corners each day. Unfortunately, PWAT values remain below seasonal normals this week. Thursday, models begin to resolve another ridge reforming overhead and pushing our temperatures back toward triple digits in the desert valleys. This will serve to force moisture back west and into the Great Basin out of reach for us. This late week moisture push on Friday looks like a good opportunity for some rainfall, if it were only a bit farther east. Still some time for models to come around, but a warm and dry forecast looks to continue as we reinforce the hot, dry air mass locked in place. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1122 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 VFR conditions with unlimited ceilings will continue through the next 24 hours. West winds during the afternoon will increase becoming breezy at most TAF sites across the area, but will diminish and shift to normal drainage flows after sunset. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 158 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 High pressure remains in place through the weekend resulting in warm and dry weather. Breezy conditions are expected each afternoon with northeast Utah and northwest Colorado seeing the strongest winds this afternoon and evening. As such, the current Red Flag Warnings remain in effect. Some stronger winds are forecast to shift a bit further south today so with that, decided to add UT Fire Zone 490 and CO Fire Zone 202 to the going Red Flag Warnings. Elsewhere, elevated fire conditions will be more localized or will occur where fuels are not considered critical. On Sunday, breezy conditions develop again in the afternoon and evening though the stronger winds will be found south of the I-70 corridor. Fuels have been deemed not critical by our fire weather partners in much of this area, despite low humidities, gusty winds AND recent fire starts (especially in the southern valleys) in those areas so no products have been issued. The only exception is UT Fire Zone 491 in southeast Utah. Would still like to see a bit more coverage before issuing any products so will hold off on including them in any Watch or Warning. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202. UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ485>487- 490. && $$ SHORT TERM...TGR LONG TERM...LTB AVIATION...NL FIRE WEATHER...TGJT