764
FXUS65 KGJT 062052
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
252 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry, warm, sunny, and breezy conditions will continue Sunday.

- Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for northeast and east-
  central Utah and northwest Colorado.

- Fire Weather Watch in effect Sunday afternoon/evening for
  southeast Utah and a portion of southwest Colorado.

- Latest models indicated that the break in monsoon activity
  will persist through the week ahead, though some moisture
  spreads into the area from the edges of the high centered
  over the West later in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 252 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The weather pattern features a ridge of high pressure over the
West Coast and a long wave trough over the center of the U.S.
this afternoon. Consequently, dry air will continue to move
over the region tonight resulting in few clouds and no chance
for precipitation. On Sunday, a short wave mid-level trough
moving southeastward across the northern Rockies and northern
High Plains brushes Colorado`s northern and central Continental
Divide mountains bringing a chance for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms for those areas during the afternoon
and evening. In addition, this disturbance will bring breezy
afternoon/evening winds with the strongest winds across the
south. Afternoon highs are expected to be near normal with lows
tonight and Sunday night just a bit below seasonal norms.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 252 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The surface high currently stationed off the California coast
will slowly build west towards the forecast area next week. As
it does temperatures will warm above normal. Valley locations
receive the burnt of the heat with afternoon temperatures rising
to 5-10 degrees warmer than typically seen in the first half of
July. Precipitation chances will remain hard to come by as
well. We`ve been monitoring the potential for moisture advection
into the area this coming week, but recent trends do not look
favorable. The GEFS and ECMWF ensembles do show PWATs increasing
by Tuesday into Wednesday, but even so they are projected to
remain below normal for this time of year. A few showers and
storms may form each afternoon in the San Juans come mid-week
and beyond (20-40% chance), but beyond that most locations will
likely remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR conditions with unlimited ceilings will continue through the
next 24 hours. West winds during the afternoon will increase
becoming breezy at most TAF sites across the area, but will
diminish and shift to normal drainage flows after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Red Flag Warnings continue through 9 PM this evening for
northeast and east-central Utah and northwest Colorado when
winds decrease and relative humidity begins to recover.

On Sunday, breezy conditions are expected to redevelop during
the afternoon and continue into the evening. However, the
stronger winds shift south of the I-70 corridor. Based on winds
and low relative humidity, issued a Fire Weather Watch for
southeast Utah and a portion of southwest Colorado. NFDRS was
utilized in lieu of Colorado Fuels Status to pin down fire
danger for southwest Colorado.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202.
     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for COZ207.
UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ485>487-
     490.
     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for UTZ490-491.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT