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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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983 FXUS65 KGJT 071742 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1142 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag Warnings have been issued for southeast Utah and southwest Colorado today. Winds will gust 20-30 mph around the region. - Warm and dry conditions are expected to persist this week for much of the West Slope, with temperatures nudging up midweek. - Some moisture returns later this week for the southern mountains. Confidence is low in measurable rainfall and extent of areal coverage. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 422 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 The persistent ridge anchored over the West will keep us locked in the warm and dry air mass for another day. A few clouds spilling over the front of the ridge might be spotted along the Continental Divide this afternoon, but precipitation concerns are quickly muted by the dry boundary layer conditions in place. Winds aloft soften some today, but should remain strong enough to mix down another day`s worth of 20-30 mph gusts around the region. The Fire Weather Watch for southeast Utah and southwest Colorado has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. Afternoon highs will nudge up in our deserts,where triple digits return today, but eastward things will look pretty similar to Saturday with low valleys around 90 and mountain towns around 80. Winds aloft ease up Monday as the trough on the Great Plains pulls eastward with the tropical storm remnants working inland. Lighter winds should keep us out of critical fire weather conditions on the wind speed side of the equation. However, warm and dry conditions remain in place with relative humidities in the 10-15 percent range Monday afternoon. A weak pulse of moisture might penetrate the southern edge of our Continental Divide Monday afternoon. This appears to be a model artifact of the wraparound, easterly flow on the remnants of Beryl. I think a few clouds are within reason here, but precipitation chances remain low. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 422 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 The persistent area of high pressure will have set up over Las Vegas and doesn`t look to move much at all through much of the long term period. While areas to our east will have to deal with Beryl and her remnants as she tracks across central portions of the US, we`ll have sun, sun, and a bit more sun with the usual afternoon breezes. While it`s been warm around here lately, the real heat starts to build in Tuesday and continues into the weekend. Triple digits over central and SE Utah Tuesday move into the Grand Valley Wednesday while elsewhere highs reach anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal normals. Some moisture does try to sneak northward under the high midweek onwards. This is reflected in the NBM with some chances (still at 20 to 40%) for a few showers and storms over the San Juans and up into the central mountains each afternoon heading into the weekend. Don`t expect coverage to be all that great as daytime heating will be the main trigger for any convection that does fire. By Saturday, the center of high pressure is progged to be over central Colorado and this looks to open the door for moisture to finally start moving into the region thanks to southerly flow. Models and the NBM like this idea as convection is forecast to increase across the area. This far out we`ll wait and see...fingers crossed. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1142 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 VFR conditions with unlimited ceilings will continue through the next 24 hours. West winds during the afternoon will increase becoming breezy at most TAF sites across the area, but will decrease and shift to the north for many sites this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 422 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Critical fire weather conditions develop this morning across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado thanks to low relative humidities and a deeply mixed atmosphere. Winds will slacken late this evening enough to move us back above the critical fire weather thresholds. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ207. UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ490-491. && $$ SHORT TERM...LTB LONG TERM...TGR AVIATION...NL FIRE WEATHER...TGJT