817
FXUS65 KGJT 080302
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
902 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warnings continue into the evening for southeast
  Utah and southwest Colorado. Winds will gust 30-40 mph around
  the region.

- Warm and dry conditions are expected to persist this week for
  much of the West Slope, with temperatures increasing midweek.

- Some moisture returns later this week for the southern
  mountains. Confidence is low in measurable rainfall and extent
  of areal coverage.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Winds have dropped across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado,
with relative humidity values slowly beginning to recover. As
such, the Red Flag Warning for portions of southeast Utah and
southwest Colorado has been allowed to expire.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 328 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Early this afternoon satellite imagery shows the high pressure
center that has been driving our warm, dry weather for much of the
last week has slightly shifted to the east/southeast and now
straddles the coast of northern California. It will continue it`s
slow progression to the southeast tomorrow giving us one more day of
near-normal temperatures. Dry northwesterly flow aloft continues to
limit precipitation chances area wide through Monday night. The most
notable difference between tomorrow`s weather and what we`ve been
experiencing the last couple of days is that the upper-level jet
responsible for gusty afternoon winds gets pulled into eastern
Colorado tomorrow morning with the passage of a shortwave trough.
This will lead to lighter winds across the forecast area and help
mitigate fire weather concerns for the time being.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 328 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

High pressure will persist over the West throughout the remainder of
the week ahead according to model consensus. As a result,
temperatures will climb to around 5 degrees above normal where they
will hover through Saturday. In the lower valleys it will be hot,
but at this point, it doesn`t appear the region will be in record
territory. With little wind under the high, critical fire weather
conditions are unlikely despite low relative humidity. Despite high
pressure, models continued to insist that outflows from storms east
of the central and southern Colorado Divide will be forced west
across the Divide resulting in increased chances of
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms over the San Juan
Mountains and the central Colorado mountains each day in the long
term period. Not entirely confident in this solution, but we`ve seen
moisture undercut the ridge in the past, which then gets recycled
over a number of days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 558 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Gusty winds will continue through sunset with gusts 25 to 35 mph
at times, especially across east-central and southeast Utah as
well as southwest Colorado. Winds become light and terrain
driven overnight with breezy conditions again Monday afternoon.
VFR conditions remain through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 328 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Critical fire weather conditions continue across southeast Utah and
southwest Colorado today thanks to low relative humidities and a
deeply mixed atmosphere. Winds this afternoon are gusting higher
than guidance had indicated. A good number of observed gusts between
35-40 mph have been reported, with locally stronger gusts possible.
Winds subside later this evening and will move us back above the
critical fire weather thresholds.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BGB
SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...MDA
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT