396
FXUS63 KGID 161730
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances will continue through much of this
  morning, but storms are expected to weaken as sunrise
  approaches. There is another potential for thunderstorms this
  evening, most likely within the 3PM to midnight timeframe.
  Some of those storms may be severe, with large hail and strong
  winds being the main threat.

- After a dry Wednesday and most likely dry Thursday, rain and
  thunderstorm chances return Friday through the weekend.

- Temperatures will still be warm today, but cooler Wednesday
  through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

This will be a fairly brief discussion with severe weather
across portions of the area this morning. Showers and
thunderstorms are moving across the area this morning, with
some of the storms in Kansas producing hail to the size of
quarters and wind gusts to 70 mph. These are expected to weaken
and move off to the east this morning. Severe weather should be
limited to north central Nebraska.

Later today, thunderstorms are expected to move into the
forecast area from the north, and some of these may be strong
to severe, with wind gusts to 60 mph and up to ping pong ball
size hail (1.5" diameter) possible in the strongest storms.
The timeframe for storms this afternoon and evening is
approximate 3PM to midnight. High temperatures will be in the
80s across south central Nebraska and into the low 90s in north
central Kansas.

Wednesday and Thursday, the forecast area will be under
northwest flow aloft as we sit between a broad upper trough over
the eastern CONUS and a ridge over the western CONUS. This will
bring some cooler temperatures and dry weather to the area with
highs in the 70s and 80s both days.

Friday through the weekend, a more pronounced upper trough will
move over the central Plains, bringing better chances for
showers and thunderstorms. The best chances within this
timeframe will be Friday evening and night with a 50-70 percent
chance across the area, with a 20-40 percent chance through the
rest of the weekend. High temperatures will be in the 80s on
Friday but likely only in the 70s on the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Thunderstorms and low stratus are both possible at GRI/EAR in
this TAF period.

Thunderstorms are expected to move north to south across
central Nebraska this evening. The primary time window at
GRI/EAR is still the 01-04Z timeframe.

Skies briefly clear after these storms exit, but MVFR stratus
is likely (70% chance) to develop by Wednesday morning. There is
also a chance (40%) that ceilings at least briefly drop to IFR.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Mangels