064
FXUS63 KGID 130929
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
429 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog are expected this morning, mainly along and north
  of Interstate 80. Generally visibility of 3 to 5 miles is
  expected, but there will be pockets of dense fog with
  visibility reduced to one quarter mile or less.

- Dangerous heat expected this weekend, with a Heat Advisory in
  effect for the entire forecast area from 1PM Saturday through
  8PM Sunday, and from 1PM Saturday through 8PM Monday for areas
  south of Highway 6 in south central Nebraska and across north
  central Kansas.

- Widespread heat index values of 100-110 degrees expected
  during the afternoon and early evening both Saturday and
  Sunday, as well as across north central Kansas and areas south
  of Highway 6 in south central Nebraska Monday.

- Cooler temperatures and increased precipitation chances return
  by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

This morning...

Patchy fog has developed early this morning along and north of
Interstate 80. Forecast models hinted at this but did not really
have a good grasp on visibility. Currently it appears that areas
near the interstate should remain at or above 2SM visibility for
the most part, while there may be a few areas of dense fog with
a quarter mile or less visibility north of the interstate. Fog
is expected to dissipate by around 9 this morning. An MCS that
developed over northwestern Nebraska is expected to weaken and
fizzle out as it approaches our forecast area this morning.

Today through Monday...

Upper level high pressure extending from the southwest CONUS
into the central and southern Plains and south to southeast
surface winds will allow temperatures to soar this weekend and
potentially into early next week. A Heat Advisory is in effect
for the entire forecast area from 1PM today until at least 8PM
Sunday evening, and this advisory was extended until 8PM Monday
evening for southern portions of the forecast area.

Starting with today, high temperatures will climb into the 90s
north and into the 100s south. Heat index values will be in the
100-105 degree range across the entire area and possibly near
110 degrees in some areas. High temperatures and heat index
values will be similar Sunday, but a couple of degrees hotter
than Saturday. Overnight low temperatures will only fall into
the upper 60s and 70s tonight and Sunday night, and that will
not be until well into the overnight hours both nights which
will not allow for much recovery from the heat. This is a good
portion of the reasoning behind carrying the heat advisory
through the overnight hours as well. There may be a few
thunderstorms Sunday night into early Monday morning in
proximately to a weak surface low passing to the north, but
chances are low (15-25%).

Monday, an approaching trough will bring a cold front across the
region. Exact timing regarding this is uncertain, but
temperatures behind the front Monday will be a little "cooler"
and "only" reach the low to mid 90s. Temperatures south of the
front will again reach 100-110 degrees. Confidence is fairly
high that this will at least include north central Kansas, so
the Heat Advisory was extended for that area and for areas just
north of the NE/KS state line.

Monday night onwards...
A series of disturbances embedded in an upper level trough
moving across the region will bring cooler weather and increased
chances for precipitation, especially Monday night through
Wednesday, with the best chances Monday night-Tuesday morning
(30-40%) and Tuesday evening-Wednesday morning (30-55%).
Wednesday through Friday precipitation chances will be lower as
the trough pushes east and upper level ridging tries to take
hold, but embedded shortwaves still support a 15-30% chance of
precipitation for most of Wednesday through the end of the work
week. High temperatures Tuesday through Friday are expected to
be in the 80s to near 90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

For the most part, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period, but some patchy fog may be possible during the early
morning hours Saturday through around 13/13Z.

Fog: Patchy fog is expected early Saturday morning, mainly north
of the TAF sites. Most likely the TAF sites only see visibility
reduced to 6 SM, but ensemble forecast models shows a 20% chance
of visibility falling to 1 SM or less at both KEAR and KGRI, so
this is something we will watch for further development.

Winds will be generally around 5-8 kts out of the south to
southeast through Saturday morning. There may be a bit of an
uptick to the winds Saturday afternoon with occasional gusts of
10-15 kts. Saturday evening, winds are expected to become
southwesterly at 8-10 kts.

Clouds are expected to be mainly FEW to SCT cirrus through the
TAF period, with the exception of the previously mentioned
chance for some patchy fog over the TAF sites from around 13/09Z
to 13/13Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Monday for
     NEZ082>087.
     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077.
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Monday for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Hickford