852
FXUS63 KGID 040533
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1233 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected mainly after 7PM
  this evening. Strong winds and heavy rain will be the main
  threats, although large hail and an isolated tornado cannot be
  entirely ruled out.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected to clear out of the
  area by early to mid-afternoon on Independence Day. Dry
  conditions are expected for those with fireworks plans in the
  evening.

- After a dry Thursday evening through Friday, periodic shower
  and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast early Saturday
  morning through early Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 412 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Much of the Hastings CWA is under sunny to mostly sunny skies at
this hour, allowing us to warm things up.  Current temperatures are
in the 70s and 80s, with expected highs mainly in the 80s.  Strong
to severe thunderstorms are expected across the region tonight.
Thunderstorms have already developed across western Nebraska and
northeastern Nebraska.  These storms are expected to congeal into a
line, posing a strong wind threat as they move into the Hastings
area later this evening.  There still remains some uncertainty to
the extent of how much of the Hastings coverage area will be
impacted.  Models have not done well at coming into agreement, and
have flip-flopped on specific areas. Should this line hold
together, we are looking at most of our south central Nebraska
counties and possibly some of our north central counties being
impacted.

Strong winds and some large hail will be the main concerns
as storms move through the area.  An isolated tornado cannot be
entirely ruled out. Additionally, heavy rainfall over areas that
have had a few inches of rain over the past week may result in some
flooding issues in localized areas.  The ground is fairly saturated
in spots, so it will not take a lot of rain to cause some issues.
The entire Hastings CWA has been outlooked in a Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall for this afternoon/evening. The entire area is
included in a Marginal or Slight Risk for severe weather for this
afternoon and evening.

Heading into Thursday, a broad upper ridge extending west to east
from the PACNW to New England, will remain over Nebraska and Kansas.
 High temperatures are looking fairly nice, ranging from the mid-70s
to low 80s in Nebraska and the low to mid-80s in Kansas.  There will
be some lingering chances (20-50%) for showers and thunderstorms to
start off the day.  Storm chances will diminish from west to east
during the late morning, with most areas being rain free by mid-
afternoon.  The rest of your Independence Day is expected to be rain
free, with temperatures falling into the low 60s (north) to low 70s
(south) around fireworks time.

For those looking for some reprieve from the rain, enjoy the weather
Friday.  Dry and sunny conditions are expected through the day. High
temperatures will be slightly warmer (upper 70s-low 80s Neb/low to
mid-80s KS).

Saturday, we transition to a period of northwest flow over the area,
as the upper trough shifts slightly eastward.  This will result in a
shift in the weather pattern, allowing for disturbances to drop into
the area from the PACNW.  Periodic showers and thunderstorms will be
possible from early Saturday morning through early Monday morning,
with additional chances heading into mid-week.  Temperatures will be
primarily in the 70s and 80s each day for highs, and the 50s and 60s
for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

One area of showers/storms is currently pushing east of the
terminal areas...can`t rule out some gusty SE winds for a brief
period in its wake. Will be a bit of a lull, before another
round of precipitation works in from the NW. Models suggest by
the time it gets this far SE it may be scattered in nature, so
wasn`t confident enough to go with more than a VC mention at
this point. Once those chances pass by by mid-late morning, the
remainder of the period is dry. Models continuing to show the
potential for MVFR ceilings closer to 10Z and on into the mid-
late morning, otherwise VFR conditions are expected. Winds
expected to turn NNW later tonight, then are more NW during the
daytime hours Thursday...gusts near 20-25 MPH not of the
question during the afternoon...becoming more westerly for the
final few hours of this period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wekesser
AVIATION...ADP