![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
855 FXUS64 KFWD 131719 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Sunday/ North and Central Texas will remain beneath weak ridging through the weekend, with the ridge axis firmly planted over the Four Corners Region. A plume of rich Gulf moisture will continue to migrate northward into Central Texas through the remainder of the day. We`re beginning to see some isolated to scattered diurnally- driven showers and storms develop within this plume of moisture. This trend will continue through the afternoon, with all activity waning near sunset this evening. While another hot afternoon is expected today, temperatures will remain below 100 degrees for most locations and potentially only in the 80s for portions of Central Texas where increasing cloud cover and the highest coverage of showers and storms are expected. The increase in moisture will keep temperatures slightly warmer tonight with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Urban areas across the Metroplex will likely only fall into the upper 70s. Sunday will be a bit warmer as slightly stronger ridging builds into the region. While actual temperatures will still remain below 100 degrees for most of the area, heat index values between 100-105 degrees are expected for nearly all locations. The plume of Gulf moisture will have shifted further south and east by tomorrow, resulting in little to no chance for rain. The main exception will be east of I-35 and south of I-20 where we can`t rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /Issued 239 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/ /Monday and Beyond/ A ridge of high-pressure will settle over the Four Corners Region by early next week as North and Central Texas remains beneath a persistent col through at least midweek. Weak mid- and upper-level flow will keep relatively dry air anchored over the region maintaining higher rain chances to our south and east each afternoon in the higher PWAT airmass. Expect afternoon highs to inch toward the century mark early next week as 22-26 degreeC 850mb temperatures sprawl overhead. This slight uptick in temperatures and a gradual increase in boundary-layer moisture through the week may cause heat index values to approach Heat Advisory criteria at several locations in the Monday-Wednesday timeframe. Looking toward the end of next work week, ensemble and deterministic guidance continue to highlight an upper-level trough digging south across the Plains toward the Mississippi River Valley. This would send a summer cold front toward North Texas in the Wednesday night-Thursday timeframe, increasing rain chances through the end of the week across the region. Thunderstorm coverage will likely peak during the afternoon/early evening hours each day in the vicinity of this boundary during max diurnal heating. There is currently quite a bit of spread in the rainfall totals amongst ensemble members; highly dependent upon the strength and southward progression of the frontal boundary. But right now, a good starting place for likely rainfall totals over North and Central Texas during the second half of next week falls in the 0.25-0.75" range with isolated totals over 1.5" (especially along/east of I-35). Langfeld && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR will continue through the period. Isolated to scattered showers and storms have developed across Central Texas, with additional development expected through the afternoon. VCTS was introduced to the KACT TAF from 19-00Z, but the best potential looks to be after 20Z. Any convective activity is expected to remain south of D10, ending near sunset this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Additional isolated storms are expected across East/Southeast Texas tomorrow, but this activity will remain east of all terminals. Winds will generally remain out of the south, but will vary between southeast and southwest at times. Wind speeds will be between 10-15 knots or less through the period. Barnes && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 96 77 98 80 99 / 5 0 5 0 0 Waco 92 74 96 76 98 / 20 10 5 0 0 Paris 94 74 94 75 96 / 0 0 5 0 5 Denton 97 74 99 77 100 / 0 0 5 0 0 McKinney 96 75 97 77 99 / 5 0 5 0 0 Dallas 97 77 99 79 100 / 5 0 5 0 0 Terrell 94 74 95 75 97 / 10 5 10 5 5 Corsicana 94 75 97 77 97 / 20 10 20 0 5 Temple 92 73 95 74 97 / 30 10 5 0 0 Mineral Wells 96 73 99 75 100 / 5 0 5 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$