855
FXUS64 KFWD 131719
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Sunday/

North and Central Texas will remain beneath weak ridging through
the weekend, with the ridge axis firmly planted over the Four
Corners Region. A plume of rich Gulf moisture will continue to
migrate northward into Central Texas through the remainder of the
day. We`re beginning to see some isolated to scattered diurnally-
driven showers and storms develop within this plume of moisture.
This trend will continue through the afternoon, with all activity
waning near sunset this evening. While another hot afternoon is
expected today, temperatures will remain below 100 degrees for
most locations and potentially only in the 80s for portions of
Central Texas where increasing cloud cover and the highest
coverage of showers and storms are expected. The increase in
moisture will keep temperatures slightly warmer tonight with
overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Urban areas across the
Metroplex will likely only fall into the upper 70s.

Sunday will be a bit warmer as slightly stronger ridging builds
into the region. While actual temperatures will still remain
below 100 degrees for most of the area, heat index values between
100-105 degrees are expected for nearly all locations. The plume
of Gulf moisture will have shifted further south and east by
tomorrow, resulting in little to no chance for rain. The main
exception will be east of I-35 and south of I-20 where we can`t
rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 239 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/
/Monday and Beyond/

A ridge of high-pressure will settle over the Four Corners Region
by early next week as North and Central Texas remains beneath a
persistent col through at least midweek. Weak mid- and upper-level
flow will keep relatively dry air anchored over the region
maintaining higher rain chances to our south and east each
afternoon in the higher PWAT airmass. Expect afternoon highs to
inch toward the century mark early next week as 22-26 degreeC
850mb temperatures sprawl overhead. This slight uptick in
temperatures and a gradual increase in boundary-layer moisture
through the week may cause heat index values to approach Heat
Advisory criteria at several locations in the Monday-Wednesday
timeframe.

Looking toward the end of next work week, ensemble and
deterministic guidance continue to highlight an upper-level trough
digging south across the Plains toward the Mississippi River
Valley. This would send a summer cold front toward North Texas in
the Wednesday night-Thursday timeframe, increasing rain chances
through the end of the week across the region. Thunderstorm
coverage will likely peak during the afternoon/early evening
hours each day in the vicinity of this boundary during max
diurnal heating. There is currently quite a bit of spread in the
rainfall totals amongst ensemble members; highly dependent upon
the strength and southward progression of the frontal boundary.
But right now, a good starting place for likely rainfall totals
over North and Central Texas during the second half of next week
falls in the 0.25-0.75" range with isolated totals over 1.5"
(especially along/east of I-35).

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR will continue through the period. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms have developed across Central Texas, with
additional development expected through the afternoon. VCTS was
introduced to the KACT TAF from 19-00Z, but the best potential
looks to be after 20Z. Any convective activity is expected to
remain south of D10, ending near sunset this evening with the loss
of daytime heating. Additional isolated storms are expected
across East/Southeast Texas tomorrow, but this activity will
remain east of all terminals.

Winds will generally remain out of the south, but will vary between
southeast and southwest at times. Wind speeds will be between
10-15 knots or less through the period.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    96  77  98  80  99 /   5   0   5   0   0
Waco                92  74  96  76  98 /  20  10   5   0   0
Paris               94  74  94  75  96 /   0   0   5   0   5
Denton              97  74  99  77 100 /   0   0   5   0   0
McKinney            96  75  97  77  99 /   5   0   5   0   0
Dallas              97  77  99  79 100 /   5   0   5   0   0
Terrell             94  74  95  75  97 /  10   5  10   5   5
Corsicana           94  75  97  77  97 /  20  10  20   0   5
Temple              92  73  95  74  97 /  30  10   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       96  73  99  75 100 /   5   0   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$