019
FXUS64 KFWD 121931
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
231 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 127 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024/
/Through Saturday afternoon/

For the rest of the day, other than the scattered showers/storms
developing across portions of Central Texas this afternoon, hot
and fairly quiet weather conditions are expected. The best
coverage should remain to our south where the highest moisture is
located, but any storm that moves into our southern zones may
still produce brief heavy rain, occasional lightning, and gusty
winds. Most of the activity will diminish in the evening with loss
of heating with mostly clear conditions expected overnight. Low
temperatures will again be in the 70s with light south winds.

Another hot day is expected on Saturday with highs in the mid to
upper 90s for most locations. One difference is that we will have
slightly better moisture over our area resulting in better
rain/storm chances across Central Texas. As mentioned in previous
discussions, it is possible some of this activity may move
farther north to near I-20. This will again be your brief typical
summer storms capable of a few lightning strikes and gusty winds
before they dissipate during the evening hours.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Onward/

The center of an upper level ridge is currently over the Desert
Southwest and will slowly meander towards the Southern Plains
over the next handful of days. Increasing heights and subsident
air moving into the region will allow temperatures to gradually
warm over the first half of the upcoming week, with high
temperatures in the 90s to around 100 expected. This increase in
temperature will also result in an increase in heat index, with
peak indices up to around 106 expected mainly east of I-35 through
Wednesday. This will likely meet our Heat Advisory criteria in
some places, so expect heat headlines to make a reappearance.

Thankfully we will be spared the hottest of temperatures as an
inverted trough/weakness in the ridge will persist through Tuesday
and keep the high center to our west. General afternoon garden-
variety showers and storms will be possible across east Texas in
response to the aforementioned weakness on Sunday. Deterministic
and ensemble guidance diverge on afternoon rain chances from then
on, so we`ll need to keep watch for an introduction of low PoPs
during the early week. Severe weather is not expected with any
activity at this time.

Over midweek an upper level trough will dig southeastward into the
Midwest, sending a cold front south through the Plains. This front
will move through our area late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing
slightly cooler temperatures and increased rain chances through
Thursday.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 127 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

No aviation concerns expected through the period with VFR and south
winds between 5-15 kt. This afternoon`s scattered showers and storms
will remain mainly across Central Texas and to the south, but an
isolated storm may move close to KACT before dissipating after 00Z.
Given the low confidence in placement and timing, opted to not
include the mention of TS at this time. Another round of diurnal
convection will develop across Central Texas on Saturday. Some of
this activity may briefly impact KACT during the afternoon. This
potential will need to be monitored for future TAF updates. At
this time, the TS potential across the North Texas sites remain
low (less than 15%).

Sanchez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  97  78  97  79 /   0  10   0  10   0
Waco                74  94  76  96  76 /   5  20   5  10   0
Paris               73  95  74  94  75 /   0   5   0  10   0
Denton              74  98  75  99  76 /   0  10   0  10   0
McKinney            74  96  76  97  76 /   0  10   0  10   0
Dallas              77  97  78  98  79 /   0  10   0  10   0
Terrell             73  94  74  94  75 /   0  20   0  10   0
Corsicana           75  95  76  95  77 /   0  20   5  10   5
Temple              73  93  74  95  74 /   5  20   5  10   0
Mineral Wells       72  97  73  98  75 /   0  10   0  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$