Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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545 FXUS64 KFWD 142307 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 607 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Monday/ An upper level ridge will continue to build in across our CWA, keeping temperatures high and rain chances low. Low temperatures tonight will hover in the mid 70s with some locations in Dallas/Fort Worth only cooling to around 80 degrees. As Monday morning arrives, temperatures will climb into the triple digits, with heat index values topping into the 104-106 range by the afternoon. A Heat Advisory has been issued for Monday`s hot conditions for the DFW Metroplex and northeastern counties. Due to aggressive mixing, dewpoints have remained in the upper 60s, limiting heat index maximums over the day today. This daytime over-mixing is expected to decrease over the next few days as trends continue to indicate heat index values climbing while the ridge over our forecast region continues to sharpen. High temperatures into Tuesday are expected to continue crossing the 100 degree mark, as the likelihood of extending the Heat Advisory into our southernmost counties continues to increase. This trend of warming heat index values into the 105+ degree range will continue until chances of precipitation return later in the week. Davis && .LONG TERM... /Issued 235 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ /Monday Night Onward/ Hot, above-normal conditions are expected to persist through the first half of this week as North and Central Texas remain under the influence of the aforementioned upper ridge to our west (mentioned in the short term forecast above). Afternoon highs on Tuesday will peak in the mid 90s to around 103, accompanied by advisory-worthy heat indices for the majority of the region (between 103-107 degrees). An upper longwave trough will begin to dig southward across the Midwest and Plains overnight into Wednesday, shunting the ridge center further west and sending a cold front southward. This displacement of the ridge will lower afternoon temperatures a couple of degrees. Afternoon highs will still be able to reach the mid 90s to just above 100 with heat indices between 101-108 degrees. Monday`s Heat Advisory will likely be extended and/or expanded through the first half of the week, but this will come in further forecast updates. The caveat is a spread in frontal timing. Deterministic and ensemble/cluster guidance are at odds with each other in regards to FROPA, with deterministic guidance favoring an earlier FROPA. Current mid- and long-range models have the front moving into our northwestern counties by early Wednesday afternoon, while the ensembles/clusters have the front moving through late Wednesday into Thursday. We`ll keep an eye on this as temperatures will be impacted. As the region becomes influenced by the trough overhead, shortwave disturbances rounding the base of the trough will provide the lift necessary for scattered showers and storms to form along the front as it moves southward Wednesday night into Thursday. At this time, severe weather is not expected. However, inverted V and onion-shaped sounding profiles will promote a threat for gusty winds. Additional disturbances moving across the region will keep the unsettled weather pattern going, with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible through the weekend. Regarding temperatures late this week and weekend, the passage of the front and rain-cooled air will bring the return of below-normal temperatures. Expect afternoon highs to only peak in the upper 80s to mid 90s Thursday-Saturday, a welcome sight during the doldrums of summer. Prater && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFS/ VFR conditions expected to continue into the overnight period, with south winds of 10-15 knots shifting southwest as the day progresses. No significant aviation concerns are expected through the day Monday. Davis && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 101 80 101 80 / 5 0 0 0 0 Waco 76 100 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 77 97 77 97 77 / 5 0 0 0 0 Denton 77 101 79 103 77 / 5 0 0 0 0 McKinney 78 100 79 100 78 / 5 0 0 0 0 Dallas 80 102 80 102 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 77 98 77 98 76 / 5 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 77 98 76 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 74 99 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 75 101 76 103 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ091>095- 100>107-116>123-131>135-145-146. && $$