241
FXUS64 KFWD 081114
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
614 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

The overall pattern discussed below remains on-track after
updating the forecast with the latest data. Beryl has made
landfall and will move across Texas today and tonight. The main
impact for our area will be heavy rain and flooding, especially
for areas along and east of I-45 and US-75. Rainfall totals west
of these highways will be very hit or miss. While about 10% of the
area should receive between 2-4", most should receive less than
0.25". Be prepared to take action if you receive any flood
warnings today.

Bonnette

Previous Discussion:
/Monday and Tuesday/

Key Messages:

- Hurricane Beryl will make landfall before sunrise this morning
  and impact the eastern half of our forecast area today.

- The main impact today will be heavy rain and flooding mainly for
  areas east of I-45...Our easternmost 1-2 rows of counties are
  forecast to receive between 4-7" of rain with isolated totals of
  10" today.

- 20-30 mph winds with gusts up to 40 mph is expected for parts of
  eastern Central Texas this afternoon. The remainder of the area
  will be gusty, but below our Wind Advisory criteria.

- Scattered showers and storms are forecast to develop west of the
  track of Beryl, mainly across North Texas. This precip will be
  very hit/miss with localized areas receiving 2-4" of rain while
  areas a few miles away receive less than 0.25" of rain.

- Beryl will move into East Texas/Arkansas tonight, with all
  precip exiting our area Tuesday morning.

Discussion:
By daybreak, Beryl should be a Tropical Storm near Houston with a
shield of moderate to heavy rain moving into our eastern Central
Texas counties. The aforementioned scattered showers will also be
ongoing further north over North and East Texas, and a cluster of
storms is expected to be ongoing over western North Texas/southern
Oklahoma. Beryl will move north-northeast today, clipping Leon
and Anderson counties this afternoon. The rain shield will advance
well north and west of the center of the track, particularly this
afternoon when the system starts to transition to sub-tropical.
This will create quite a gradient in precipitation, with our
eastern 1-2 rows of counties (closest to the track) receiving
between 4-7" of rain and isolated areas receiving 10". Most areas
west of I-35 can expect lower totals, but still between 1-3". Just
west of the rain shield, less than 0.25" of rain is expected (for
the most part--more on that below). How far west the steady rain
shield will settle is still uncertain, but most of the high-res
guidance ends it around the I-35 corridor. To illustrate the
point...most CAM guidance has the eastern Metroplex getting ~10
hours of steady rain, while areas west of the D/FW Airport receive
about an hour or less of rain all day.

We have issued a Flood Watch for most of our eastern counties that
starts this morning and ends tonight. Areas within the watch have
a high risk of flooding today...particularly for any low-lying
and flood-prone locations east of I-45. Be prepared to take action
if you receive a warning. If traveling, Turn around, don`t drown
if you encounter flooded roads.

We briefly mentioned a cluster of storms ongoing over western
North Texas early this morning. This activity is taking place in a
broad area of large-scale ascent ahead of a potent shortwave
trough that will swing across Texas today. This cluster should
weaken after sunrise, with scattered showers and storms
developing later this morning into the afternoon along remnant
mesoscale boundaries. Beryl will still have a strong influence on
where these develop, creating north-south oriented bands of
moderate to heavy rain. We expect 2-4" of rain to fall within
these convective bands. Areas outside of these bands will receive
much less rain, generally less than 0.25"

Beryl will move into East Texas late this afternoon, then Arkansas
tonight. Any ongoing precipitation away from the center of the
track (the convective bands) should end within a couple hours of
sunset. The rain near the center of Beryl will move out of our
area before sunrise Tuesday. While the shortwave trough will
create a messy pattern today, it will result in much quieter
weather tomorrow. We have trimmed PoPs out of most of the area,
with only a 20% chance of showers in the afternoon across the
eastern and southern fringe of our forecast area.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 300 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024/
/Wednesday And Beyond/

At the onset of the extended period, North and Central Texas will
be located on the fringes of a persistent upper ridge to the west
and a deamplifying upper trough lifting from the Mississippi
Valley to the Great Lakes. The combination of the lingering warm
and humid airmass, weak/broad high pressure at the surface, and
modest mid/upper level flow will favor a pattern of primarily
diurnal convection through Friday and into the weekend. Scattered
daytime thunderstorms developing along the sea breeze as well as
any other remnant boundaries will generally focus the best rain
chances across Central Texas through the period leaving most of
North Texas precipitation-free for the remainder of the week.

Temperatures will be on the rise as southerly surface winds
return, with afternoon temperatures quickly climbing into the mid
to upper 90s. Unfortunately this puts us on track for the re-
emergence of triple digit heat by the end of the weekend. With no
means to dry out the boundary layer, humidity is also going to be
a problem with peak heat index values likely approaching Heat
Advisory criteria across parts of the area late weekend and into
the following week.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

A narrow area of rain is currently draped across the D10 and ACT
terminals. There have been very infrequent lightning strikes, so
we have opted to prevail -RA VCTS instead of adding a TEMPO or
prevailing TS on-station this morning. This should slowly move
NW, with a few hour lull in precip around mid-morning. There is a
20% chance this band does not move off or dissipate and light rain
continues all morning.

Hurricane Beryl will move inland today, with a shield of moderate
to heavy rain near the center of the track. West of the storm,
scattered storms will develop early this afternoon, in and near
D10 and ACT. Beryl`s rain shield will approach our TAF sites by
the mid-afternoon, which will lower the thunder potential to under
20%. While the exact westward extend of the rain shield is still
uncertain, we`re confident that AFW/FTW will remain on the dry
side. The TAFs attempt to reflect these trends, but adjustments
will likely be needed as Beryl continues to move north today.

Beryl should exit to the NE this evening, leaving the region under
a shroud of patchy MVFR ceilings this evening before improving to
VFR late tonight.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    84  71  91  72  95 /  50  40   5   5   5
Waco                84  70  92  71  94 /  60  30   5   5  10
Paris               83  68  86  67  91 / 100 100  30   5   5
Denton              86  68  91  68  95 /  60  30  10   5   0
McKinney            83  69  90  68  94 /  90  60  10   5   5
Dallas              85  72  91  72  95 /  70  50  10   5   5
Terrell             82  70  89  68  92 / 100  80  10   5   5
Corsicana           82  70  91  72  94 / 100  80  10   5   5
Temple              84  70  93  71  95 /  60  20  10   5  10
Mineral Wells       88  68  92  67  95 /  60  20   5   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ095-105>107-121>123-
135-146>148-160>162-174-175.

&&

$$