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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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318 FXUS64 KFWD 160524 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1224 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Overnight through Wednesday/ Clear skies and a steady south wind will result in a warm but quiet night tonight as temperatures fall into the upper 70s by morning. Persistent ridging will remain in place on Tuesday with North Texas firmly beneath the eastern periphery resulting in hot and dry conditions. Modest south-southwesterly flow beneath the subsident ridge along with strong afternoon heating has promoted deep mixing the last several afternoons. This should continue on Wednesday with dewpoints falling into the mid 60s during peak heating. This reduction in RH should result in heat indices at or just above the actual air temperature. With high temperatures forecast to be in the upper 90s to near 103 today, we`ll see a few locations meet Heat Advisory criteria this afternoon. The current advisory covers this well, and no changes are anticipated at this time. Today will be the hottest day this week as we undergo a pattern change through the end of the week which will certainly be welcome this time of year. Troughing will amplify over the Northern Plains and Great Lakes this afternoon into Wednesday allowing a chunk of cooler Canadian air to slide southward through the Plains while pushing our mid level ridge westward. While summertime cold fronts are generally a rare treat, this one will be aided southward by a rather potent surface high pressure center around 1024 mb which represents an approximate 6-8 mb positive anomaly. This suggests that the front shouldn`t have any trouble making it into North Texas, and much of the high resolution guidance now shows the front crossing the Red River on Wednesday afternoon. Given an earlier arrival during peak heating, we`ll likely see scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms develop along the boundary and have raised PoPs accordingly. It`s a little uncertain how much heating we`ll see ahead of the front, but typically we have no problem warming up, and for now we`ll keep high temperatures in the upper 90s, but there is potential for these to need to be lowered. Given the timing of the thunderstorm chances, there will be a threat for strong storms with primarily a damaging wind threat through the afternoon. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 305 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ By Tuesday night, an upper level trough will be digging southward across the Midwest. This pattern shift will shunt the dominating upper ridge to our west and send a cold front south across the Plains. The front is progged to arrive in our northwestern counties late Wednesday morning/early afternoon and will slowly continue south throughout the day. High temperatures will still be able to peak in the 90s to just above 100, with heat indices ranging from 99 out west to 107 in the east. Lift from both the front itself and its associated mid-level disturbance will work with the available moisture to produce scattered showers and storms along the boundary as it advances southward. While the overall severe threat with this initial activity is low, inherent instability, a well-mixed low-level atmosphere (inverted V profiles), and steep DCAPE would promote a primary threat for strong to marginally severe wind gusts. We`ll keep an eye on this potential and adjust messaging as more high- resolution models begin to cover this period. The front will eventually wash out over south Central Texas on Thursday and provide a focusing point for additional convective development to end out the work week. Mid-level troughing will continue to dominate the weather pattern through early next week, keeping on and off rain chances going through at least the weekend. Coverage in showers and storms will increase by Sunday as 2+" PWATs begin to surge northward from the Gulf. Guidance is indicating at least a wetting rainfall (at least 0.25") across the region, with higher rainfall totals expected in the Sunday-Monday time frame. The post-frontal airmass and continued rain chances will keep temperatures below normal with morning lows in the 60s/70s and highs in the 80s/90s through Monday. Prater && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /6Z TAFs/ VFR will prevail through the period with south winds 10 to 15 kt and occasional gusts to 25 kt. No significant aviation concerns are expected through Tuesday. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 102 81 98 76 / 0 0 5 40 20 Waco 77 100 77 99 76 / 0 0 0 20 10 Paris 76 100 78 94 72 / 0 0 5 40 40 Denton 78 103 79 97 73 / 0 0 5 40 30 McKinney 78 101 80 97 73 / 0 0 5 40 30 Dallas 81 102 82 99 76 / 0 0 0 40 20 Terrell 77 98 78 97 74 / 0 0 0 30 20 Corsicana 77 98 77 97 76 / 0 0 0 20 20 Temple 75 99 76 98 74 / 0 0 0 10 5 Mineral Wells 76 103 77 98 73 / 0 0 5 30 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091>095-100>107- 116>123-131>135-145-146. && $$