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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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008 FXUS64 KFWD 170015 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 715 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Tonight Through Thursday Morning/ A hot afternoon has come to an end as high temperatures in the mid 90s to just above 100 and peak heat indices between 99-107 have begun to lower. Outdoor conditions will continue to cool down with the loss of heating, with overnight temperatures bottoming out in the 70s and 80s. A longwave trough will continue to dig southward across the western half of the CONUS overnight, shunting the upper ridge further west and sending a cold front south through the Plains. A couple of CAMs are hinting at light precipitation echoes early tomorrow morning as a weak impulse interacts with abundant moisture north of the Red River. Not much, if any rain is expected out of this as the moisture is in the mid-levels, but a couple sprinkles could not be ruled out if the echoes make it father south into North Texas. A shortwave disturbance rounding the base of the main trough will push the front south of the Red River towards the afternoon on Wednesday. This front is progged to enter our northwestern counties around noon. Increased forcing for ascent from both the shortwave and the accompanying frontal boundary will allow for isolated to scattered showers and storms along the front. Not everyone will observe a shower/storm, but for those that do: the overall severe threat is on the lower end, but inverted V profiles and large DCAPE will promote a primary threat for strong to marginally severe wind gusts. Both the front and accompanying showers/storms will slowly sag southward late Wednesday evening into the overnight hours. By daybreak Thursday, the front and its accompanying rain chances will be located across Central Texas. Thursday morning will feature continued cooler temperatures than the previous mornings thanks to both rain-cooled air and cooler temperatures behind the front. Prater && .LONG TERM... /Issued 321 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024/ /Wednesday Night through Next Week/ Showers and storms will continue to push south into Central Texas Wednesday evening, eventually dissipating Wednesday night with the loss of diurnal instability. The cold front partially responsible for the convection will stall somewhere across the CWA, likely across Central Texas, providing focus for additional development Thursday morning as a trailing shortwave passes overhead. Morning convection should push south of the area Thursday afternoon as the front sags farther south and east, and precipitation will most likely remain south and east of the region for the rest of the day. Weak flow aloft will preclude a severe weather threat for the most part, though good instability will support a few strong storms, and perhaps an isolated severe storm or two with damaging downburst winds. A lull in rain chances is expected on Friday as convection remains focused across South Central and Southeast Texas along the front, though low POPs will be kept across Central Texas where isolated storms may still occur. The boundary will lift north through Central and North Texas on Saturday as the next shortwave trough drops south through the Plains. Widespread convective development appears likely across Northwest Texas and Oklahoma Saturday afternoon and evening as the shortwave continues dropping south, with activity again focused along the front. The boundary will reverse course again, returning south as a cold front along with the associated convection Saturday night and Sunday, bringing good rain chances for the latter half of the weekend. The slow movement of the shortwave and the presence of the surface front will provide additional storm chances for Monday and possibly into Tuesday of next week. Clouds, precipitation, and slightly cooler air behind the front will also ensure below-normal temperatures during the Sunday through next Tuesday period. Mid range guidance indicates that weak troughing will linger overhead during the days 7 through 10 period, which points to seasonable temperatures and at least slight chance POPs for the middle and latter part of next week. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ Southerly winds around 10-15 kts will continue overnight at all TAF sites. A slow cold front will move through D10 late tomorrow afternoon (beginning around 21Z), shifting winds to an overall northerly flow. Scattered showers and storms will accompany the frontal passage, with direct impacts to the terminals most likely between 22-01Z. Main concerns will be lightning and occasionally strong variable outflow winds. The front and its accompanying storms will continue southward through tomorrow night, eventually moving through ACT after midnight Thursday morning. Prater && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 99 76 93 74 / 0 30 30 30 10 Waco 77 99 75 95 73 / 0 20 30 50 20 Paris 79 94 72 88 69 / 10 30 30 40 10 Denton 79 98 73 94 71 / 10 30 30 20 10 McKinney 81 97 74 92 71 / 10 30 30 30 10 Dallas 81 99 77 94 74 / 0 30 30 30 10 Terrell 78 97 73 92 71 / 0 30 30 40 20 Corsicana 79 99 75 94 74 / 0 20 30 50 30 Temple 76 98 75 96 71 / 0 10 30 50 20 Mineral Wells 78 99 73 94 70 / 5 30 30 20 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107- 116>123-131>135-145-146. && $$