826
FXUS64 KFWD 170530
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1230 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Overnight through Thursday/

A quiet night is in progress across North and Central Texas, but
the radar scopes are active north of the Red River where a semi-
organized thunderstorm complex is ongoing. This is in response to
the first of a few shortwave troughs digging into the Plains
around the periphery of stronger ridging to the west. In addition,
a chunk of cooler Canadian air is spilling south through the
Plains where temperatures are in the 50s across parts of the
Dakotas and Minnesota. A somewhat diffuse frontal boundary is
located across northern Oklahoma and is helping to serve as the
focus for thunderstorm development tonight. Most of this activity
will remain well to the north of our area through the overnight
hours.

On Wednesday, as the aforementioned shortwave spreads into the
Arklatex, the frontal boundary will also shift southward, likely
aided by thunderstorm outflow, and will cross the Red River during
the afternoon. While there won`t be a sharp temperature drop, it
will be accompanied by a wind shift to the north and increased
cloud cover. We`ll remain hot ahead of the boundary with
temperatures likely again in the mid to upper 90s, but scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop during peak heating along
the boundary by mid to late afternoon. The boundary should be near
the I-20 corridor during this time with our first decent rain
chances expected in the Metroplex and spreading south into the
late evening hours. We`ll have PoPs at 30-50% during this time as
they should still be scattered in nature. While we can`t rule out
a few strong storms with gusty winds, generally weak flow and
modest instability should limit the overall threat for severe
weather.

It`s a little uncertain whether or not there will be any
organization to the cluster of storms into the evening hours with
the current thinking that they`ll likely persist for several hours
after sunset, but with a general downward trend in intensity. The
boundary itself will continue to push southward with additional
thunderstorm chances on Thursday mainly south of I-20. High
temperatures on Thursday should only manage the upper 80s and
lower 90s with more clouds and a light north wind.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 321 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024/
/Wednesday Night through Next Week/

Showers and storms will continue to push south into Central Texas
Wednesday evening, eventually dissipating Wednesday night with
the loss of diurnal instability. The cold front partially
responsible for the convection will stall somewhere across the
CWA, likely across Central Texas, providing focus for additional
development Thursday morning as a trailing shortwave passes
overhead. Morning convection should push south of the area
Thursday afternoon as the front sags farther south and east, and
precipitation will most likely remain south and east of the
region for the rest of the day. Weak flow aloft will preclude a
severe weather threat for the most part, though good instability
will support a few strong storms, and perhaps an isolated severe
storm or two with damaging downburst winds.

A lull in rain chances is expected on Friday as convection
remains focused across South Central and Southeast Texas along the
front, though low POPs will be kept across Central Texas where
isolated storms may still occur. The boundary will lift north
through Central and North Texas on Saturday as the next shortwave
trough drops south through the Plains. Widespread convective
development appears likely across Northwest Texas and Oklahoma
Saturday afternoon and evening as the shortwave continues dropping
south, with activity again focused along the front. The boundary
will reverse course again, returning south as a cold front along
with the associated convection Saturday night and Sunday, bringing
good rain chances for the latter half of the weekend. The slow
movement of the shortwave and the presence of the surface front
will provide additional storm chances for Monday and possibly
into Tuesday of next week.

Clouds, precipitation, and slightly cooler air behind the front
will also ensure below-normal temperatures during the Sunday
through next Tuesday period. Mid range guidance indicates that
weak troughing will linger overhead during the days 7 through 10
period, which points to seasonable temperatures and at least
slight chance POPs for the middle and latter part of next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/6Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the overnight hours with increasing high
cloud cover from thunderstorms to the north. South winds around
15 kt are expected. A frontal boundary and increasing storm
chances will spread into North Texas on Wednesday afternoon. Winds
should become more southwesterly ahead of the boundary with VCTS
developing by 20Z. We`ll continue with a few hours of TEMPO TSRA
from 21-00Z. Winds will become more northerly behind the main area
of storms into Wednesday evening. VFR should prevail outside of
any convective areas.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    82  98  75  89  74 /   5  50  40  40  10
Waco                79  98  76  92  73 /   0  20  40  50  20
Paris               77  95  70  82  69 /   5  40  60  40  10
Denton              80  97  73  90  71 /   5  50  40  30  10
McKinney            80  97  72  86  71 /   5  50  50  40  10
Dallas              82  98  76  90  74 /   5  50  50  40  10
Terrell             78  96  73  85  71 /   0  40  50  50  20
Corsicana           78  97  74  86  74 /   0  20  50  60  30
Temple              77  97  75  93  71 /   0  10  30  60  20
Mineral Wells       78  98  73  92  70 /   5  40  30  40  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$