535
FXUS64 KFWD 211839
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
139 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

...New Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Monday/

A shortwave trough will continue to spur additional rounds of
showers and thunderstorms across the region through this evening.
Given a lack of stronger forcing and deep layer shear, the severe
weather threat will remain low with locally heavy rain and
lightning still expected to be the primary hazards. However, gusty
winds can`t be ruled out with any of the stronger storms,
especially those that develop across our western zones where
instability is maximized. Convective activity should decrease some
this evening, but a weak front will be approaching the region
with the shortwave remaining overhead. Therefore, some
broad brushed 20-30% PoPs were maintained overnight.

The cold front will arrive late tonight into early Monday morning,
bringing a weak north/northeast wind shift to much of the region.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop with the
arrival of the front, but there is still some uncertainty in the
northern extent of this development. Coverage will likely remain
fairly scattered across North Texas (if storms develop this far
north), with many locations missing out on rain entirely. The
highest coverage will be across Central Texas where widespread
showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop within a plume of
rich Gulf moisture. With PW values in excess of 2" (well above
90th percentile climatological values), heavy rain will be the
primary concern with this activity. Dense cloud cover will blanket
much of the region throughout the day, keeping temperatures in
the 80s. Areas that see persistent rain will likely remain in the
70s.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 400 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024/
/Tuesday Through Saturday/

Mid-latitude troughing will dig into the Lone Star State on
Tuesday, and the mid-level trough axis will remain anchored over
us into the upcoming weekend. This will mean a protracted period
of unsettled weather with below normal temperatures and daily rain
chances. Despite minimal inhibition regionwide, the orientation of
the trough will focus the highest and most persistent rain chances
across Central and East Texas. These areas will benefit from the
richest moisture flux and the more favorable forcing for ascent.
The result will be a sharp gradient in rainfall amounts over the
course of the week, from scant totals in our northwest to
potential flooding in Central Texas.

As the showers and storms will be largely diurnally driven, cloud
cover during the daylight hours will likely keep Central and East
Texas below 90F into the upcoming weekend. With considerable
rainfall, some locations could experience a day with temperatures
peaking in the 70s. But after an unseasonably cloudy day on
Monday, the sun will return Tuesday to much of North Texas where
sunshine will outpace cloud cover the remainder of the week. While
still below normal, high temperatures will be in the low to mid
90s across much of North Texas from Wednesday into the upcoming
weekend.

25

.CLIMATE...

Our current forecast keeps Waco`s temperatures below 90F for 5
consecutive days. During the latter half of July, this has only
happened once before (July 21-25, 1938).

Killeen had a rainy stretch of 6 consecutive days below 90F in
late July 2007. Our current forecast, which has highs in the 80s
Monday through Saturday, would match that streak.

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1257 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...Multiple rounds of showers and storms throughout the
period. A weak cold front will bring a N/NE wind shift early
Monday morning. MVFR ceilings expected Monday morning following
the arrival of the cold front.

Multiple rounds of showers and storms will continue to impact the
terminals into the evening hours. Coverage will remain scattered
through the afternoon as the current round of showers and storms
moves east. Some terminals will likely see a brief lull in
convective activity at some point this afternoon, but confidence
was too low to advertise this in any of the TAFs at this time.
Another round of showers and storms may develop near the Red River
this afternoon and would move south through D10 into the evening
hours. All showers and storms should end/exit the area by 02-03Z
this evening. There is a low chance we`ll see additional
convection overnight, but this activity is currently expected to
remain east of the terminals. Additional showers and storms are
expected tomorrow ahead of a cold front. Confidence in timing and
areal coverage across North Texas is too low to include any
precipitation in the TAF. Chances are better for KACT, but this
appears to be just outside of the current TAF period at this time.

Winds will generally remain out of the south/southeast below 10
knots this afternoon and will decrease to less than 5 knots this
evening. A weak cold front will bring a north/northeast wind shift
to all terminals early Monday morning (between 09-11Z), but wind
speeds will remain below 5 knots until late morning. MVFR
ceilings are expected for a few hours behind the front.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  87  72  88  73 /  40  30  20  30  10
Waco                72  86  71  86  71 /  50  70  50  60  20
Paris               70  85  70  86  69 /  20  30  20  30  10
Denton              72  87  70  89  70 /  40  30  20  20  10
McKinney            72  87  71  88  71 /  40  30  20  30  10
Dallas              74  88  73  89  73 /  40  30  30  30  10
Terrell             71  87  70  86  70 /  30  40  30  40  20
Corsicana           72  89  72  87  72 /  40  60  50  60  30
Temple              73  88  70  86  70 /  40  80  50  70  30
Mineral Wells       71  87  69  89  69 /  40  30  20  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$