554
FXUS64 KFWD 200620
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
120 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Sunday/

Anomalously strong troughing and northerly flow aloft will be
maintained all weekend, with periodic thunderstorm chances and
near-normal temperatures. Upstream convective activity in the TX
Panhandle will encroach on North Texas after daybreak this
morning, but most or perhaps all of this convection will
dissipate prior to venturing into our CWA. It may, however, send
an outflow boundary into the Big Country and parts of western
North Texas which could serve as a focus for additional
thunderstorm development later this afternoon near and west of the
Highway 281 corridor. Have retained 20-30% PoPs in this area
through peak heating although coverage and placement of any
residual boundaries and resultant convection will remain quite
uncertain at a time range of more than a few hours. Otherwise, the
return to southeasterly surface flow will send both temperatures
and dewpoints a few degrees higher than yesterday.

An upstream frontal zone will make progress towards the forecast
area heading into Sunday, and this boundary will produce more
meaningful lift in conjunction with an approaching mid-level
vorticity maximum. This should result in scattered to numerous
thunderstorms across much of the CWA tomorrow afternoon. The
moderate instability and low shear environment typical of late
July will support an isolated microburst threat, but organized
severe thunderstorms are unlikely. Due to the presence of more
cloud cover and likely some convective outflow boundaries
tomorrow afternoon, highs may only reach the upper 80s to lower
90s for many locations.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 259 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/
Update:
No significant changes were made to the previous forecast, with
below average temperatures and daily rain chances Sunday through
the end of next week. Rain/storm chances will be the most
widespread on Monday and will be accompanied by a threat for heavy
rainfall and flooding. Ensure you monitor the forecast over the
next few days for the latest information.

Barnes

Previous Discussion:
/Next Week/

A strongly amplified ridge will remain across the West with a
Bermuda high anchored off the East Coast. In between, negative
height anomalies will prevail, maintaining an unsettled period for
Texas with below normal temperatures and persistent rain chances.
Despite how unusual this is for July, guidance is in fairly good
agreement with the evolution of this troughing.

Early in the week, the trough will attempt to backbuild to the
southwest, sending spokes of energy into North Texas. The first
in a series of impulses will arrive on Sunday, initially enhancing
convection along a frontal boundary to our northwest. Scattered
showers and storms will steadily increase in areal coverage across
the region into the afternoon hours. As a result, Sunday will be
noticeably cloudier than Saturday with lightning and gusty winds
potentially disrupting outdoor plans.

As a subsequent impulse arrives on Monday, the front will likely
push deeper into North Texas, particularly if aided by outflow.
Pooling moisture will push precipitable water values near maximum
amounts for July, most notably across Central and East Texas
where the heavy rain threat will also be maximized. Slow-moving
efficient rain producers may introduce flooding concerns,
especially in areas that have already experienced significant
rainfall during preceding days. Monday`s high temperatures will
generally be in the 80s, but daytime values may linger in the 70s
if the precipitation is persistent enough. Highs in the 70s are
rare during July and typically require considerable rainfall.
Neither DFW nor Waco has seen a July day below 80F since 2014.
(Killeen had a rainy day with a high of 79F in July 2021.)

While Monday may be the wettest day of the bunch, extraordinary
precipitable water values will linger the remainder of the week,
with additional impulses providing daily rain chances. The
cumulative impact of the rainfall will maintain the flood threat.
The frontal boundary will no longer be in play on subsequent days,
but the surface wind field should be weak enough to allow outflow
boundaries to linger, serving as focal points for renewed
development. The locations of these mesoscale features can`t be
pinpointed at this time scale, and the forecast for the middle of
next week will focus the highest PoPs and heaviest rainfall
amounts across Central and East Texas where the deepest moisture
will reside.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with southeast winds of 10
kts or less. Upstream convection presently in the TX Panhandle
will steadily drift towards North Texas later today but will
dissipate prior to reaching D10. All convective activity through
the duration of the period is expected to remain well west/
northwest of the TAF sites.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  94  76  92  74 /   0   5  20  50  50
Waco                68  95  74  95  73 /   0   0   5  40  30
Paris               65  89  70  88  70 /   0   0  10  30  50
Denton              69  95  73  93  71 /   0  10  30  50  60
McKinney            70  93  73  90  72 /   0   5  20  50  60
Dallas              72  95  77  93  74 /   0   5  20  50  50
Terrell             66  92  72  92  72 /   0   0  10  50  50
Corsicana           67  94  74  94  74 /   0   0   5  40  40
Temple              69  96  73  95  73 /   0   0   5  30  20
Mineral Wells       70  96  72  93  70 /   0  20  20  50  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$