519
FXUS64 KFWD 210004
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
704 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Sunday Night/

A cluster of storms is ongoing mainly just west of our region
with a few storms managing to develop in our far western counties
as of this writing. This convection is being triggered by a weak
boundary that continues to slowly move southeast. This boundary,
along with the hot temperatures, will continue to trigger
additional thunderstorms through around sunset. A few storms may
be strong with gusty downburst winds possible.

A shortwave will be arriving later tonight, riding along the
northwesterly flow aloft. This shortwave should trigger additional
convection across southwestern Oklahoma, some of which will begin
moving into parts of North Texas by early Sunday morning. By
sunrise, scattered showers will be possible along the I-35
corridor in North Texas. Although a rumble of thunder cannot be
ruled out, if a storm develops, it`s expected to remain sub-severe
given unfavorable shear and instability. The morning showers
should continue moving southeast through the day, impacting
Central and East Texas by the afternoon.

A secondary area of ascent will move atop our region mid to late
Sunday afternoon, once again igniting a few showers and storms.
With afternoon destabilization, storms will mainly pose a
lightning and gusty wind threat. Coverage is expected to remain
between 20% to 40%; not everyone will see rain tomorrow.

Most of the precipitation will come to an end Sunday night,
leaving behind northerly winds and mostly cloudy skies. Both
daytime and nighttime temperatures will remain slightly below
normal with highs in the 80s to lower 90s and lows in the upper
60s to mid 70s.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 236 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024/
Update:
No major changes were made to the previous forecast, with daily
rain chances and below normal temperatures continuing through the
period. The best potential for rain areawide will be on Monday,
but the highest rain chances will remain across Central Texas
throughout the week. Efficient rainfall rates will result in an
increased potential for flooding. The highest rainfall totals are
expected on Monday, with a low threat for flash flooding for areas
south of the I-20 corridor where 1-3" of rain are expected on
average. Persistent rain chances across Central Texas may renew
flooding concerns on a daily basis. Rainfall totals through the
end of the week are currently expected to be between 2-5" south of
I-20. It`ll be hit-or-miss across North Texas, with average
rainfall totals between 1/4" to 1" though a few locations may miss
out entirely.

Barnes

Previous Discussion:
/Monday Through Friday/

Texas will spend the upcoming week sandwiched between a strongly
amplified ridge in the West and a remarkably persistent Bermuda
high to the east. Early in the week, our northwest flow regime
will give way to troughing that will nose into the Lone Star
State from the northeast. Both of the aforementioned subtropical
ridges will strengthen through midweek, and while our mid-level
heights won`t significantly change, this will induce/enhance the
troughing overhead. A comparatively deepening saddle will maintain
minimal inhibition and daily rain chances. The persistent
convective activity should serve to reinforce the relative
depression aloft with some guidance suggesting a closed upper low
may develop by midweek. Unseasonably cloudy conditions will
prevail with below normal temperatures during what is
climatologically the hottest part of the year. The National Blend
of Models (NBM) has likely PoPs (at least 55 percent) within our
area each day from Monday through Thursday. This is far above
climatology, which is generally 15 to 25 percent across the region
in late July.

Aided by both a pronounced shortwave embedded in northerly flow
aloft and convective outflow at the surface, a cold front will
invade the region on Monday. While the bulk of the morning
convection may be coincident with the boundary, the activity will
steadily expand in areal coverage during the daylight hours as a
destabilizing uncapped boundary layer couples with increasing
forcing for ascent. Widespread showers and storms ahead of the
boundary will feed off of precipitable water values soaring above
2 inches. The precipitation efficiency, combined with the slow
motion of individual cells, will enhance rainfall amounts. Some
locations will experience multiple storms Monday afternoon, the
cumulative effect of which may result in flooding. The areas of
greatest concern will be across Central and East Texas, which will
have the longest duration south of the boundary. The rain and
extensive cloud cover will cap temperatures in the 80s, with the
NBM keeping parts of the Big Country in the 70s.

A similar but somewhat less rainy day will follow on Tuesday when
the frontal boundary will begin to lose its resolution. Sunshine
and fewer showers and storms will allow portions of North Texas to
reach or exceed 90F, a scenario that will repeat itself through
Friday. By midweek, the main heavy rain threat will shift into
South and Southeast Texas where the richest moisture influx will
be. However, further rounds of rainfall are expected Wednesday and
Thursday, particularly across Central and East Texas. Any
additional rainfall could initiate or reaggravate flooding
concerns. With persistent cloud cover and rainfall, some locations
across Central and East Texas may remain below 90F throughout the
upcoming workweek.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Concerns...Morning SHRA with increasing thunderstorm potential in
the afternoon. Erratic winds will be possible with any
precipitation.

North and Central Texas is now entering into a more active
weather pattern with periodic rain chances expected through the
next several days. Although a few storms are ongoing just west of
the D10 airspace at this time, none of this activity is expected
to impact regional airports.

The first opportunity for precipitation will come tomorrow morning
as showers stream into North Texas from the northwest. Much of
this precipitation is expected to be in the form of rain showers,
with a low potential for lightning. For now, we`ll continue to
advertise VCSH starting at 09Z but will reevaluate the need for
VCTS in subsequent forecasts. As instability increases in the
afternoon, a few storms will be possible across North and Central
Texas. Temporary wind shifts will be possible with the storms,
however, confidence in wind gust timing/direction remains too low
at this time. We`ll continue to refine the forecast and include
finer details tonight.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  89  74  85  72 /  30  40  40  50  40
Waco                73  91  73  88  72 /   5  40  30  70  60
Paris               70  86  70  85  70 /  20  30  30  50  40
Denton              72  88  72  85  69 /  40  40  40  50  30
McKinney            73  88  71  85  70 /  30  30  40  50  40
Dallas              75  89  75  87  73 /  20  40  40  60  40
Terrell             72  88  72  86  70 /  10  30  40  60  50
Corsicana           74  91  73  87  73 /   5  40  40  70  60
Temple              73  91  72  89  70 /   5  40  20  70  60
Mineral Wells       71  90  71  84  67 /  30  40  30  50  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$