772
FXUS64 KFWD 172005
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
305 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 117 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024/
/Through Thursday Afternoon/

Quite the active day is in store for most of North and Central
Texas, which started off with a relatively calm morning. Earlier
today, a remnant outflow boundary started to push through portions
of North Texas. Showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed
along this boundary across the Metroplex, which will continue
heading south ahead of a rather ill-defined cold front.

Ahead of this front, temperatures will still be quick to rise,
leading to another hot summer afternoon across much of our area.
Afternoon highs will climb into the mid to upper 90s, with a few
locations along the Red River staying in the low 90s. Areas under
increased cloud cover that have already seen rain have remained a
bit cooler. The aforementioned cold front will push through North
Texas right around peak heating, resulting in scattered
thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Increasing rain
chances will spread south with the progression of the cold front,
eventually making its way through Central Texas later this
evening. Overall, the severe weather threat remains low. That
being said, we can`t rule out a few stronger storms where gusty
winds and lightning will be the main hazards. The most glaring
limitation is the lack of shear, which should result in mostly
beneficial rainfall for folks in the area.

Confidence in the forecast decreases later this evening and
tonight once the cold front pushes into Central Texas. Some of the
hi-res model guidance has the front stalling out, while others
are slower with the initial progression of the front. This could
potentially lead to lingering thunderstorm chances across Central
and East Texas through Thursday. This is important to note as this
may have implications on a possible flooding threat across our
southern and eastern counties, depending on storm evolution.

Speaking of which, a conditional threat for heavy rainfall and
potential flooding issues remains possible. Confidence on exact
timing and area of impact remains a bit low, so for now we will
hold on on issuing any flood products. There is a medium chance
for flash flooding across our eastern zones where a bulls-eye
50-70% chance of at least 3 inches or more of rainfall exists for
points east of the Metroplex into East Texas. This potential will
linger through the overnight hours into early Thursday morning,
with rain chances continuing across Central Texas through the
afternoon hours once again.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Night Onward/

North and Central Texas will continue to be situated between a
longwave ridge to the west and a longwave trough to the east. This
mid-level pattern will keep northerly flow aloft in place and
persist with on and off rain chances through the end of the week as
impulses move around the base of the trough. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms are expected through Friday afternoon across
Central Texas, closer to the axis of higher moisture and lift. We`ll
see an overall lull in precipitation over most of Saturday in
between the movement of small disturbances, though low chances for
isolated storms are possible Saturday afternoon for portions of
the Big Country and eastern Central Texas as one of those
disturbances moves overhead. More sunshine and the aforementioned
drier conditions will allow Saturday afternoon temperatures to
peak in the upper 80s to mid 90s, the warmest day for the rest of
the forecast period.

By the end of the weekend, a shortwave will dig south as it moves
along the periphery of the main longwave trough. The ridge will be
pushed even further west and the region will be enveloped within
the influence of the trough. Located just upstream of the trough
base, North and Central Texas will continue to observe unsettled
weather throughout the rest of the long term forecast period. In
response, on and off showers and storms will gradually increase
in coverage as we go into the first days of next week.
Additionally, PWATs will also surge to near 2" across the region.
Best chances for precipitation will once again be located across
Central and East Texas where the best moisture will be found.
Most likely total precipitation at any one place between Sunday
and Wednesday is 0.5-1.5" with isolated higher amounts of 1.5"-3".
While our recent dry spell has allowed soils to dry from our
fairly wet spring season, multiple rounds of showers over the next
7 days with some capable of heavy rain will bring back a concern
for flooding. This will be especially true for those areas that
see higher-end totals.

Switching over temperatures, the on and off rain chances and
persistent cloud cover will keep temperatures cooler than normal
for this time of year. Expect high temperatures in the mid 80s to
low 90s from Sunday through midweek of next week.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 117 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024/
/18z TAFs/

Concerns...Thunderstorm Potential Through Tomorrow Morning.

VFR conditions should mostly prevail outside of any convection
through the TAF period. Winds may be a bit all over the place as
convective boundaries and an approaching front gradually sweep
through North and Central Texas, but should mostly remain light
from the north once the cold front pushes through this afternoon.
Timing for convection remains reasonable with no changes
necessary. It is possible that some lingering convection will
continue through the morning on Thursday and will be worth
watching for any changes in future TAF issuances.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  90  73  91  73 /  50  40  10  10   0
Waco                74  92  72  92  71 /  40  60  20  20   5
Paris               72  84  69  86  67 /  70  40  10   5   0
Denton              72  91  69  92  69 /  50  30   5  10   0
McKinney            73  88  70  91  69 /  60  40  10   5   0
Dallas              75  91  73  91  72 /  50  40  10  10   0
Terrell             73  88  70  89  69 /  60  50  20  10   0
Corsicana           74  89  73  91  71 /  50  60  20  20   5
Temple              74  93  71  93  70 /  40  50  20  20   5
Mineral Wells       71  93  69  93  69 /  30  30   5  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$