992
FXUS64 KFWD 190002
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
702 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday Evening/

Northwesterly flow aloft continues across North and Central Texas,
shifting the shortwave that was atop our region this morning farther
to the southeast. In it`s wake, much calmer conditions are
expected as any afternoon showers should come to an end by sunset.

With northerly winds in place through tomorrow evening, tomorrow
afternoon`s temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler
compared to today. Most locations will top out in the lower to mid
90s. Precipitation chances will remain well away from North and
Central Texas, leaving behind mostly sunny skies. Enjoy the start
of the weekend as conditions will be changing the latter half of
the weekend.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 312 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/
/Friday Night Onward/

A temporary return to uncomfortably hot weather will occur on
Saturday as the front currently draped across South Central and
Southeast Texas lifts north as a warm front. Highs in the mid 90s
with dewpoints approaching 70 will create max heat index values
near 100 for several locations. Fortunately, conditions will
likely not reach heat advisory criteria.

The next round of showers and thunderstorms will develop across
western Oklahoma and Northwest Texas Saturday afternoon as an
exceptionally slow moving upper trough eases south through the
Central and Southern Plains. Convection will likely initialize
along the aforementioned surface front and will push southeast
into North Texas Saturday night. The front will return southeast
as a "cold" front along with the scattered showers and storms,
before stalling stalling somewhere across the forecast area on
Sunday.

A couple of shortwaves will round the southern flank of the
parent trough, one on Sunday and another on Monday. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop each day, with activity
focused along the front or any outflow boundaries resulting from
previous convection. The location of the highest rain chances will
depend on the position of the front and mesoscale boundaries,
which is uncertain at this juncture, so will include chance POPs
area-wide both Sunday and Monday. Severe weather is unlikely
either day, but instability will be high enough to support some
strong storms with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy
rain.

By Tuesday, the front will have shifted south to near the
southern CWA boundary while the upper trough expands southwest
across the region. This pattern will remain in place through the
end of next week. The National Blended Model hasn`t quite caught
up to this scenario and is generating widespread high POPs across
most of the region for the Tuesday through next Thursday period.
This may be true for the Central Texas counties, but POPs will
decrease substantially the farther north and away from the surface
front you go. Will maintain sight chance POPs along the Red
River, chance across most of the region, with some likely POPs
across the southern-most counties.

With this expected pattern in place, we will need to keep an eye
on the flood potential across mainly Central Texas next week where
multiple rounds of rain, some heavy, are looking like a good
possibility. Whatever the case, rain, clouds, and the passage of
the front will bring pleasant temperatures by July standards in
Texas.


30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

A few pop-up showers may develop within the D10 airspace through
the next hour or two. However, the chances of any precipitation
at any TAF site is too low to include in the forecast. Any shower
activity is expected to quickly diminish after sunset, leaving
behind dry and VFR conditions through tomorrow. Northerly winds
will persist tonight, remaining below 10 knots. Winds will
gradually become easterly tomorrow afternoon and evening, thus,
this wind shift has been included in the KDFW extended TAF.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  93  73  95  76 /   5   0   0   0  20
Waco                73  92  71  96  75 /   5   0   0   5   5
Paris               69  88  66  91  69 /  10   0   0   0  10
Denton              70  92  69  94  72 /   5   0   0   5  20
McKinney            71  91  69  94  73 /   5   0   0   0  20
Dallas              74  93  73  96  76 /   5   0   0   0  20
Terrell             71  89  69  93  72 /  10   0   0   0  10
Corsicana           73  90  71  95  75 /   5   5   0   5   5
Temple              72  92  71  97  75 /   5   5   0   5   5
Mineral Wells       70  92  70  95  72 /   0   0   0   5  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$