351
FXUS64 KFWD 082324
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
624 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tuesday/

The remnants of Beryl continue to make northeastward progress
through East Texas, and will eventually move into the ArkLaTex
overnight. A more robust convective outer band had affected areas
near and west of I-35 this afternoon and early this evening, but
this activity is on a rapid decline as of 6 PM. Light and
occasionally moderate rain will be maintained later into the night
in closer proximity to Beryl`s core in East Texas. The Flood
Watch was trimmed from several Central Texas counties earlier this
afternoon, but will be continued for our easternmost zones this
evening where persistent rainfall may at least culminate in minor
flooding. Overall, the heaviest rain totals have remained farther
east than previously forecast, and flash flooding will be
unlikely within our CWA for the remainder of this event.
Otherwise, todays`s winds have been noticeably influenced by this
tropical system, and a couple of our Central/East Texas sites even
recorded peak gusts near 45 mph. Winds will continue to decline
this evening as Beryl`s circulation drifts northeastward and away
from North and Central Texas, with speeds falling to 10-15 mph
for most areas overnight. Steady clearing will occur heading into
tomorrow, with a return to seasonably hot and rain-free weather.
Highs will be in the 90s, and rather muggy conditions are likely
to exist east of I-35 in the wake of today`s rainfall.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024/
/Tuesday Night through Monday/

The remnants of Beryl will be well removed to the northeast by
Tuesday night with a broad trough axis lingering across the
Mississippi River Valley northeast into the Great Lakes. Stronger
ridging will remain in place across the western CONUS through the
latter part of the week leaving North Texas beneath a weakness in
the height field. Weak winds aloft and a moist boundary layer
should result in hot and humid afternoons with low chances for
diurnally driven convection. The best moisture will be confined to
the Texas coast, but scattered sea breeze convection each
afternoon may make a run at our southern counties through the
weekend. Rain chances will generally be 20% or less each afternoon
with most locations remaining dry. Temperatures will also creep
back into the upper 90s by the end of the week with heat indices
near 105 degrees each afternoon.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

Scattered convection associated with the remnants of Beryl will
continue to wind down this evening, and very little lightning
activity exists across North Texas as of 23z. All precip will
vacate the area in the next few hours, with rain-free weather
prevailing thereafter. While there is a potential for low cigs to
fill in overnight within a swath of lingering low-level moisture,
most guidance maintains a very low chance (20-30%) for cigs to
actually materialize at the TAF sites themselves, and therefore
we`ve removed the mention of MVFR cigs with this issuance. These
conditions may need to be reintroduced with a short Tempo group
for a subset of airports later this evening depending on trends
over the next several hours. Otherwise, a northwest wind will
prevail, with speeds decreasing to 10-15 kts later this evening as
Beryl`s circulation moves farther northeast. A mostly clear and
dry day will prevail tomorrow with northwest winds, before wind
directions return to southeasterly tomorrow evening.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  92  74  95  76 /  30   0   0   0   0
Waco                69  93  72  95  73 /  20   0   5   5   0
Paris               68  89  67  92  70 /  80  10   5   5   0
Denton              68  92  69  96  72 /  30   0   0   0   0
McKinney            69  92  70  95  73 /  50   5   0   0   0
Dallas              71  93  74  96  75 /  30   0   0   0   0
Terrell             69  91  70  94  71 /  60   0   5   0   0
Corsicana           70  93  72  95  74 /  50   0   5   0   0
Temple              69  94  72  95  72 /  10   0   5   5   0
Mineral Wells       68  94  69  96  71 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ095-105>107-121>123-
135-148.

&&

$$