857
FXUS64 KFWD 130501
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1201 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Overnight through Sunday/

Stronger ridging has thus far remained centered over the western
CONUS keeping us seasonably hot, but also removed from the hottest
temperatures. A persistent weakness in the mid level heights will
linger today across the Southern Plains while deeper moisture that
has been generally confined to Deep South Texas spreads northward.
2"+ PWs will nose into our Central TX counties by midday and
strong heating combined with weak forcing for ascent should
result in a slightly better coverage of showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon, particularly south of I-20. This activity will be
diurnally driven, decreasing in coverage toward sunset. PoPs will
range from 20-40% this afternoon with the highest chances across
our far southern and southeastern counties. Another mostly clear
and warm night is expected with any lingering convection
dissipating after sunset. Overnight lows will creep upward
Saturday night with most areas in the mid 70s.

Ridging will expand eastward a bit on Sunday with that deeper
moisture also getting pushed farther east into southeast Texas by
Sunday afternoon. We should still see some isolated afternoon
thunderstorms, but coverage will be less than 20% and generally
confined to our far eastern and southeastern counties.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer Sunday afternoon with
highs topping out in the upper 90s. The exception will be in our
southeastern counties where additional cloud cover may keep temps
in the lower 90s, although it will be more humid.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 231 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024/
/Sunday Onward/

The center of an upper level ridge is currently over the Desert
Southwest and will slowly meander towards the Southern Plains
over the next handful of days. Increasing heights and subsident
air moving into the region will allow temperatures to gradually
warm over the first half of the upcoming week, with high
temperatures in the 90s to around 100 expected. This increase in
temperature will also result in an increase in heat index, with
peak indices up to around 106 expected mainly east of I-35 through
Wednesday. This will likely meet our Heat Advisory criteria in
some places, so expect heat headlines to make a reappearance.

Thankfully we will be spared the hottest of temperatures as an
inverted trough/weakness in the ridge will persist through Tuesday
and keep the high center to our west. General afternoon garden-
variety showers and storms will be possible across east Texas in
response to the aforementioned weakness on Sunday. Deterministic
and ensemble guidance diverge on afternoon rain chances from then
on, so we`ll need to keep watch for an introduction of low PoPs
during the early week. Severe weather is not expected with any
activity at this time.

Over midweek an upper level trough will dig southeastward into the
Midwest, sending a cold front south through the Plains. This front
will move through our area late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing
slightly cooler temperatures and increased rain chances through
Thursday.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/6Z TAFs/

VFR will generally prevail through the period with south winds 10
to 15 kt. We should see a little better coverage of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms mainly south of the D10 airspace and
possibly impacting Waco, but these will be very hit/miss and
coverage will be difficult to pin down for inclusion into the TAF.
Any activity would diminish by sunset with VFR prevailing Saturday
night.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  96  78  98  79 /   0   5   0  10   0
Waco                71  93  74  96  76 /  10  30   5   5   0
Paris               73  94  73  94  75 /   0   5   0  10   0
Denton              72  97  75  98  76 /   0   5   0   5   0
McKinney            74  96  76  97  76 /   0   5   0  10   0
Dallas              74  97  77  98  79 /   0   5   0  10   0
Terrell             72  93  73  95  75 /   5  10   5  10   0
Corsicana           71  94  75  96  77 /  10  20   5  20   5
Temple              71  92  73  95  74 /  10  30  10   5   0
Mineral Wells       71  96  73  98  75 /   0   5   0   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$