389
FXUS64 KFWD 140500
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1200 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Overnight through Monday/

Earlier showers and thunderstorms have all dissipated across North
and Central Texas this evening with mostly clear skies and warm
conditions prevailing. We`ll see south winds 5-10 mph overnight
with temperatures only falling into the mid 70s.

On Sunday, stronger ridging that has been centered over the
western CONUS will shift a little farther eastward into the
Plains accompanied by some drier air. This will mean an upward
tick in temperatures through the afternoon, although deeper mixing
should allow dewpoints to fall into the mid/upper 60s. With high
temperatures in the upper 90s, we`ll see heat indices approach 105
in a few locations. Rainfall chances will be considerably lower on
Sunday afternoon with drier air replacing the deeper moisture we
had on Saturday. We still can`t rule out an isolated storm across
our far eastern our southeastern counties, but PoPs will generally
be 10% or less.

The warmth will continue on Monday with several locations at or
just above 100 degrees along with near zero rain chances. Heat
indices may creep up above 105 in several locations and we`ll be
assessing the need for a Heat Advisory across parts of North
Texas.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 252 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/
/Sunday Night Onward/

The first half of this upcoming week will feature gradually warming
temperatures as the upper ridging mentioned in the short term
forecast discussion above continues to slowly build east into the
Southern Plains. With the high center staying to our west, we`ll
be spared from the hottest of temperatures as the region stays
planted under a well-defined col. Afternoon highs in the low-mid
90s to just above 100 combined with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s
will push peak heat indices near/above the century mark Monday
through Wednesday. Heat Advisory criteria will likely be met in
portions of the region during this time, so expect heat headlines
to make their return into the forecast.

Thankfully the heat will not be prolonged as the ridge will be
shunted back westward in response to a digging longwave trough
that is progged to move across the eastern CONUS during mid-late
week. At the surface, an associated cold front will move south,
passing through through North and Central Texas late Wednesday
into Thursday. In response to the increased lift from the front
and minor shortwave disturbances moving around the base of the
trough, showers and storms will be possible beginning late
Wednesday and Thursday as the front passes. Unsettled weather
will linger through the end of the week as additional disturbances
move overhead. Latest most likely 72-hour rainfall accumulations
through Friday morning are 0.50"-1", with isolated higher amounts
up to 1.5"- 2". As this does not encompass Friday afternoon,
rainfall totals will change in the coming forecasts, so check back
frequently for new updates.

Thanks to the frontal passage and rain-cooled air, afternoon
temperatures will drop to below normal for this time of year. Expect
afternoon highs in the upper 80s and 90s to kick off the weekend.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/6Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with southerly winds around
10 kt. No significant aviation concerns are expected through
Monday.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  98  80 100  80 /   0   5   5   0   0
Waco                75  97  75  99  75 /  10   5   0   0   0
Paris               72  95  76  96  76 /   5   5   5   0   0
Denton              75  99  78 101  77 /   0   5   5   0   0
McKinney            74  97  78  99  77 /   0   5   5   0   0
Dallas              77  99  80 101  80 /   0   5   5   0   0
Terrell             72  96  76  98  75 /   5   5   5   0   0
Corsicana           72  97  76  98  77 /  10   5   5   0   0
Temple              73  95  74  98  73 /  10   5   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       72  99  74 101  75 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$