![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
456 FXUS63 KFSD 072308 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 608 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through sunset this evening. While the threat for severe weather is very low, small hail and a brief funnel cloud would be possible. - Unsettled weather continues through the first half of this week with spotty afternoon to early evening showers/storms Sunday through Wednesday. Severe weather is not expected. - Cooler than normal temperatures for early July through the early part of next week, but trending warmer and more humid by the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Afternoon/Evening: Forecast sounding again show up to roughly 1000 J/kg of largely uncapped MLCAPE with at least modest forcing courtesy of next vort lobe evident on WV imagery spinning southward through central/western Dakotas. Instability and shear (25-30kts) not as impressive as yesterday, nor is forcing as dynamic, so while I couldn`t completely discount a stronger storm or two, severe weather much less likely. Outside of some small hail, a second concern would be a rogue funnel cloud with some signal in the sfc vorticity/0-3 km MLCAPE overlap. This activity should fade through the second half of the evening with loss of daytime heating. Overnight: Still some hints of some patchy fog as winds again go light and variable but HREF probabilities not as high as yesterday and so have patchy fog mention more confined. Monday through Wednesday: A rather stagnant pattern as region remains on the backside of the upper level trough and thus will maintain low end diurnally driven shower chances each afternoon and early evening. These look to be most prevalent near and especially east of I-29. Temperatures gradually warm a degree or two each day but generally upper 70s to mid 80s for afternoon highs. Thursday through Saturday: Upper level ridging builds eastward through the second half of the week into the weekend and with it will bring warming temperatures and increasing humidity levels as southerly return flow intensifies. No significant precipitation drivers but an occasional wave in the initial mid level northwest flow could ruin this period from being completely dry. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 601 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Mostly VFR conditions with occasional MVFR/IFR conditions are expected this TAF period mostly due to developing showers and thunderstorms. Taking a look at satellite imagery, most of the area is now covered in stratus due to the developing showers and thunderstorms mostly sitting along the Missouri River Valley and Hwy-20 corridors. Expect this activity to slow push to the east and northeast heading into the late evening before dissipating. Otherwise, conditions should begin to clear from west to east as lighter winds continue for the rest of the TAF period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kalin AVIATION...Gumbs