975
FXUS65 KFGZ 101539
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
840 AM MST Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures will continue through the week, with
a slight cooling trend for the weekend. Moisture will slowly return
to the region, with chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms
increasing each day, but especially by the weekend and into early
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A relatively strong mid-level high pressure cell
remains centered over NW Arizona today. This position should be
maintained for another day or two, before very slowly moving into
western Colorado by the weekend. This will start to open the door
for the return of Monsoonal moisture, higher dew points are already
pooling in SW Arizona, fueled by our endless thermal low.

Initially, northerly steering flow and warm temperatures aloft will
limit some convection, especially north of I-40. Some higher CAPE
values and moisture pooled in Yavapai County today may induce a few,
stronger storms this afternoon, but even these will have fairly high
bases and low PW.

By Thursday, the profiles do not change much, but as the moisture
seep comes a bit farther north each night, convective initiation
will also creep northward. Still, on Thursday and even for Friday,
storms will be relatively high-based. The story will remain to be
heat, with a smattering of storms.

By the weekend, things should really open up, even more so by early
next week. This will be due to a multitude of reasons, but basically
improved steering low, cooler mid-level temperatures and southerly
flow. This will bring us back into at least medium-grade Monsoon
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 10/12Z through Thursday 11/12Z...VFR
conditions continue with scattered to broken cloud cover after
18Z. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast (15-25%)
along and south of a KCMR-KFLG-KSOW line from 20Z-01Z with the
greatest chances for KPRC. Outside of any gusty, erratic outflow
winds from storms, expect north winds 10-15 kts through 02Z,
becoming light and variable thereafter.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 11/12Z through Saturday 13/12Z...Mainly VFR
conditions persist through the period. Chances and coverage for
showers and thunderstorms increases each afternoon, becoming
widespread by Saturday. Expect west to north winds on Thursday,
transitioning to southwest, 10-15 kts, for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...The hot temperatures persist
each day with a gradual increase in monsoonal moisture. Afternoon
humidity will remain below 15% for today and Thursday. Isolated
showers or thunderstorm may develop along and south of the Mogollon
Rim for this afternoon, followed by increasing chances along and
south of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains on Thursday. Outside
of storms, daily winds variable at 10 to 15 mph.

Friday through Sunday...A modest cooling trend as Monsoonal moisture
returns. Scattered showers and thunderstorms on Friday, widespread
for Saturday and Sunday, coverage increases to affect much of the
district. Wetting rains (>0.10") are expected with any storms along
with gusty and erratic outflow winds, up to 40 mph. Outside of any
outflow winds, anticipate west-southwest winds, 10 to 20 mph, each
afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Friday for
AZZ005-006.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia/Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff