Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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189 FXUS65 KFGZ 151123 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 425 AM MST Thu Aug 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and warm through Friday, then moisture returns and an active Monsoon pattern redevelops over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...The ridge axis has become west-east oriented and now resides across southern Arizona. This is a stable pattern and also blocks any moisture from moving into the region, for now. So, dry and warm for a couple of days, then it changes. By late Friday, the ridge moves eastward and amplifies over New Mexico, as a trough forms in the eastern Pacific. This opens the for for moisture return, the Monsoonal moisture pool has not retreated very far. This flow pattern stays intact through next weekend and perhaps much of next week. Expect a quick return to active Monsoon conditions this weekend. && .AVIATION...Thursday 15/12Z through Friday 16/12Z...Expect VFR conditions and generally light winds. OUTLOOK...Friday 16/12Z through Sunday 18/12Z...VFR conditions through 18Z Saturday, then SCT SHRA/TSRA producing brief MVFR conditions. Away from thunderstorms, expect generally light winds. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Dry, with above average temperatures and afternoon southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Sky cover will be minimal, aside from some fair-weather cumulus. Saturday through Monday...Chances for showers and thunderstorms return quickly during this period. Daytime southerly winds 10 to 15 mph. Temperatures remain above average. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff