129
FXUS65 KFGZ 070404
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
904 PM MST Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions will continue for most of
northern Arizona into early next week. A slow return of monsoonal
moisture is possible toward the middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...What little clouds we had this afternoon have dissipated
this evening giving way to clear skies across the high country.
The only snag in that will be smoke that is moving down from Utah
and into northern Arizona. For the most part this smoke will
remain elevated but may provide for some smokiness and haziness
along the 89 corridor from Page down towards Tuba City.

Otherwise, the forecast looks to be on track with another hot day
in store for Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /422 PM MST/...through Monday...Hot temperatures and dry conditions
continue this weekend as a strong ridge of high pressure remains
situated over much of the southwest. Northerly flow aloft keeps
any moisture over the lower deserts of southern Arizona, with any
chances for precipitation this far north limited to the White
Mountains.

Afternoon high temperatures through the start of next week will
continue to be near 10 degrees F above normal. With the heat,
Excessive Heat Warnings remain in effect for elevations below 4000
feet across lower Yavapai, the Grand Canyon, and Lake Powell.
Overnight temperatures should still remain fairly cool (nearly
several degrees below normal in the high terrain), with a very
dry airmass still in place.

Tuesday through Friday...High pressure continues to meander it`s way
eastward. As this occurs, moisture gradually increases over central
Arizona. The majority of the GEFS, EPS and CMCE members look to be
in agreement with this gradual uptick in moisture, however the
deeper, more widespread moisture still looks looks to remain outside
of the forecast period. Nevertheless, chances for showers and
thunderstorms begin to increase across mainly the White Mountains
and Mogollon Rim as early as Tuesday.

Regardless of any precipitation chances, some slight relief from the
heat looks probable as the high shifts. Temperatures do still look
to remain warm however, especially over the lower elevations. On
the contrary, overnight temperatures will increase, with increasing
moisture and high- cloud cover limiting the ability for radiational
cooling overnight.Trends will continue to be assessed to determine
the need for any extension to the current Excessive Heat
Warnings.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 07/00Z through Monday 08/00Z...VFR conditions.
W-NW winds 5-15 kts, becoming light and variable after 02Z. Winds
becoming W-NW 15-25 kts after 17Z.

OUTLOOK...Monday 08/00Z through Wednesday 10/00Z...VFR conditions
continue. Winds NW-N 10-20 kts on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Monday...Hot and dry weather
continues through Monday. Isolated showers/thunderstorms possible
over the White Mountains area each afternoon. North to northwest
winds 15-25 mph Sunday, becoming more northerly 5-15 mph on Monday.
Minimum RH will be between 3-15%, recovering overnight to 20-40%.

Tuesday through Thursday...Hot and dry conditions continue. Isolated
showers or thunderstorm will be possible over the eastern Mogollon
Rim and White Mountains, spreading northwestward on Wednesday. West
to north winds 5-15 mph each day. Minimum RH will be 5-20%,
recovering overnight to 25-60%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Tuesday for
AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola/Humphreys
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff