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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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791 FXUS65 KFGZ 191609 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 909 AM MST Fri Jul 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through the next week. Temperatures will remain above average through the weekend with typical afternoon winds. && .UPDATE...No morning updates needed today with another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Very similar to the past several days. Isolated heavy rain and strong wind gusts with the stronger storm cells. Temperatures will remain about 5 degrees above average. && .PREV DISCUSSION /335 AM MST/...Some light showers continue early this morning, mainly over northern Apache and Navajo counties, with clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds elsewhere. The center of the high pressure system is parked right over central Arizona, and the clockwise circulation around this center can be seen in current radar loops (showers in NE Arizona moving south, while showers in Coconino County are moving north). Latest model data continues to indicate that the center of the high will slowly move westward over the next few days, and this will bring northerly steering flow to most of our forecast area starting today, but getting a bit stronger later Saturday and Sunday. Precipitable water values are slightly above normal for mid-July south of the Mogollon Rim and this isn`t expected to change much over the next several days. Along and north of the Mogollon Rim, moisture values are closer to normal. 500mb heights will remain high today (596 dam) with another hot day around the region, but just a bit short of any warning criteria for our lower elevations. These heights slowly come down over the weekend and into next week as the high shifts westward, allowing for a gradual lowering of high temperatures - though still a few degrees warmer than normal. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop each day, first over the higher terrain including the Mogollon Rim/White Mtns by late morning or early afternoon, and then move southwestward with the mean steering flow. This pattern is favorable for some strong to locally severe thunderstorms rolling off the rim into Gila/Yavapai counties by late afternoon and evening. The main threats with these storms include strong gusty winds and localized flooding, though some isolated large hail is also a possibility. This pattern sticks around for much of next week, though right now Sunday afternoon and evening are looking particularly favorable due to higher instability (CAPE) values, and also enhanced northeasterly steering flow of around 20-25 kts. North of the Mogollon Rim, coverage of storms should be somewhat lower, but still in the 30-50% range. Outside of gusty winds with storms, generally west to northwest winds 5-15 mph are expected into next week. && .AVIATION...Friday 19/12Z through Saturday 20/12Z...SCT TSRA/SHRA 19Z-03Z with some ISO SHRA through 08Z. Periods of MVFR conditions and gusty, erratic winds near TSRA. Otherwise, VFR conditions with variable daytime winds 5-15 kts. OUTLOOK...Saturday 20/12Z through Monday 22/12Z...Daily chances for SCT TSRA/SHRA each afternoon/evening. Periods of MVFR conditions and gusty, erratic winds near TSRA. Otherwise, VFR conditions with variable daytime winds 5-15 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, with the most numerous storms expected over the higher terrain. Gusty and erratic outflow winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall remain the main hazards. Daytime winds southwest to northwest 5 to 15 mph outside of storms, along with near-normal to slightly above normal temperatures. Sunday through Tuesday...Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue each afternoon and evening. Gusty and erratic outflow winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall will be the main hazards. Variable winds 5 to 15 mph outside of storms, along with near-normal to slightly above normal temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...MCT/JJ AVIATION...Humphreys FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff