530
FXUS65 KFGZ 082102
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
202 PM MST Mon Jul 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and mostly dry conditions will persist through
mid-week, with chances for showers/thunderstorms gradually
increasing each day starting on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...Dry and hot conditions remain over northern
Arizona today as high pressure continues to wobble around the
southwest. The high will also allow for smoke from wildfires in
southern Utah to drift southward into much of northern Arizona.
Hazy skies are expected as a result, with some surface smoke
possible during the overnight hours, especially near Page and
Grand Canyon.

Tuesday through Thursday...Northerly flow will continues to advect
warm, dry air from the Great Basin. However, moisture does start to
creep back north, allowing for preciptation chances to increase
south of the Mogollon Rim and in White Mountains on Tuesday. Any
shower or thunderstorm that does develop should be isolated and
fairly minimal impact. Given the high-based nature, the only threat
will likely be brief gusty outflow winds.

Coverage in showers and thunderstorms looks to gradely increase each
day as the center of the high slowly migrates eastward from the
Mojave Desert to the Great Basin. Mid-level moisture continues to
increase, with increasing potential for high-based showers and
thunderstorms over the higher terrain with each day.

With the high still largely in control and minimal precipitation
activity expected, high temperatures across the lower elevations will
continue to be nearly 10 degrees F above normal. Excessive Heat
Warnings have thus been extended through Thursday for the lower
elevations of Yavapai County. Further north, the warning has been
extended through Friday for the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon
and the Page area.

Friday through Sunday...By the end of the week the high shifts into
a more favorable monsoonal pattern, allowing for moisture advection
to increase over much of Arizona. As moisture increases, storm
activity should increases through the weekend and become less high-
based as a more typical monsoon pattern develops.

Temperatures should also begin to cool to more typical levels with
lower heights and increased cloud cover. Excessive Heat Warnings will
continue through Friday for the Grand Canyon and Page area, but that
should hopefully be the end of this heat wave.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 08/18Z through Tuesday 09/18Z...VFR
conditions through the TAF period, with generally light northerly
winds. Haze and smoke may reduce visibilities, especially near
KPGA and KGCN.


OUTLOOK...Tuesday 09/18Z through Thursday 11/18Z...Expect mainly
VFR conditions outside of isolated SHRA/TSRA along and south of a
KFLG-KSJN line. Gusty and erratic winds in the vicinity of
SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise, winds light and variable at 5-10 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Hot and dry conditions are
expected to continue, outside of a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms spreading westward from near the White Mountains on
Tuesday, to along (and south) of the Rim on Wednesday. Northerly
winds 10-15 mph gusting up to 20 mph each day. Minimum afternoon RH
values of 5-15% with overnight recoveries to 20-35% over northwest
Arizona, 35-50% over central and eastern Arizona.

Thursday through Saturday...Hot but with gradually increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Daytime winds light and
variable at 5 to 10 mph. Minimum RH gradually rising each day
from 5-18% on Thursday to 10-25% on Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Friday for
AZZ005-006.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...BAK

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff