417
FXUS65 KFGZ 161724
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1024 AM MST Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day through the next week as an active monsoon pattern continues.
Temperatures will remain near to slightly above average with
typical afternoon winds.

&&

.UPDATE...No immediate changes for the forecast for today:
expecting another day with isolated coverage in showers and storms.
Based on satellite trends, the Kaibab Plateau should be the
starting location of storms today based on CU quickly forming
there. Likewise looks like that trend is about to start down in
the White Mountains as well. New hires models show more isolated
coverage for Yavapai county today while storms start up over the
rim and dive down into Gila county this afternoon. Overall will
see what instability and outflow boundary interaction can do for
us today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /442 AM MST/...Today...High pressure begins to retrograde
westward some as it continues to wobble around the southwest.
With flow continuing to keep monsoonal moisture moving into the
region, another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop this afternoon.

00Z HREF guidance has the greatest PWATs situated mainly south of
the Mogollon Rim, where 0.90-1.10 inches are forecast. To the north,
moisture looks to be a little less, with PWATs around 0.70-0.90
inches. SBCAPE also looks to maximized south of the Rim into eastern
Yavapai County, so the greatest coverage of storms this afternoon
will likely be concentrated over these areas. Elsewhere, more
isolated coverage is expected mainly over the higher terrain.

Gusty winds and heavy rain will be the primary threats with these
storms, however some stronger storms may produce hail as well.

Wednesday...Moisture looks to increase slightly over a broader area,
so a slight increase in coverage looks probable for Wednesday. All
and all, it looks to be another repeat of a fairly typical monsoon
day. Instability looks to be a bit less however, but still
concentrated mainly near and south of the I-40 corridor.

Thursday through Monday...High pressure seems to continue to wobble
around the southwest, gradually meandering it`s way westward through
the remainder of the forecast period. Ensemble guidance seems to not
deviate much from day to day on moisture across northern Arizona, so
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms look to continue through
the period.

Outside of the precipitation chances, temperatures look to remain
fairly typical for this time of year. With afternoon highs generally
near-normal to about +5F above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 16/18Z through Wednesday 17/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. ISO-SCT TSRA/SHRA between 19Z-03Z with brief MVFR
possible. Gusty and erratic outflow winds between 30-40 kts in
vicinity of storms. Localized FU/HZ possible due to wildfires,
especially near KGCN. Outside of storms, expect west winds 5-15
kts.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 17/18Z through Friday 19/18Z...ISO-SCT
TSRA/SHRA each day between 19Z-03Z. Gusty and erratic outflow
winds between 30-40 kts in vicinity of storms. Outside of storms,
expect west winds 10-20 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Gusty, erratic outflow
winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall remain the main hazards. West
to northwest winds 5-15 mph each afternoon with near-normal
temperatures.

Thursday through Saturday...Daily chances for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms continue into the weekend. Outside of storms, expect
winds around 5-15 mph each afternoon with near-normal temperatures.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RKR/Humphreys
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff