303
FXUS65 KFGZ 071621
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
921 AM MST Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions will continue for most of
northern Arizona through Tuesday with a gradual return of monsoon
moisture and thunderstorm chances heading into next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...Warm start to the day will translate into another hot
one across the region. A fire in Utah continues to put off quite a
bit of smoke and it can be seen on satellite pushing pretty far
south and on into Mexico this morning. Expect that smoke/haze will
be around for a while so do not be surprised if you smell smoke in
the air today or see hazy skies. Strongest smells will likely be
off towards the Lake Powell/Page area but with so much smoke
aloft, it could linger in spots. As the winds pick up through the
day, it should disperse a bit more but will likely start to settle
once again this evening.

Forecast looks to be on track this morning with only minor edits
needed. Stay cool out there today!

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /340 AM MST/...A strong and dry high pressure systems will remain
centered over the western states through Wednesday then gradually
shift eastward toward the end of the week allowing for an
increase in monsoon moisture and thunderstorm chances.

Today through Tuesday...Strong high pressure and a hot/dry
northerly flow from over the Great Basin will continue. Near
record to record high temperatures will continue as well as an
Excessive heat Warning for elevations below 4000 feet. There is
always some chance limited moisture could sneak over the eastern
Mogollon Rim or White Mountains during this period but will result
in only virga showers or brief sprinkles at the surface. It`s just
too dry for anything more.

From Wednesday onward...As the high center gradually shifts
eastward the door will open to increasing monsoon moisture as the
flow becomes more southerly to southeasterly. Moisture will move
in first to the White Mountains and eastern Mogollon on Wednesday
and Thursday with an isolated threat of afternoon thunderstorms
developing. Forecast models in good agreement in shifting the high
center even further east becoming centered over the central to
southern United States next weekend. Under this pattern deep
southerly flow is expected to develop opening the door to
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity across northern
Arizona. We`ll be keeping an eye on this but the end of our heat
wave and the return of weather more typical of July is in sight.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 07/12Z through Monday 08/12Z...Expect VFR
conditions with little to no cloud cover. Afternoon west-northwest
winds, 10-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts, becoming northeast 5-10
kts after 03Z.

OUTLOOK...Monday 08/12Z through Wednesday 10/12Z...VFR conditions
persist through Wednesday with variable cloud cover. Expect
northerly winds, 10-20 kts, each afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Monday...Expect the hot and dry
conditions to persist each day with high pressure in place.
Widespread, single-digit minimum humidity is forecast each afternoon
with poor to moderate recoveries overnight. Anticipate stronger
northwest winds for this afternoon, 15 to 30 mph, becoming more
north, 10 to 25 mph, on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Hot, above average temperatures continue
each day. Moisture begins to gradually increase from the southeast
with chances for showers and thunderstorms in the White Mountains on
Tuesday and Wednesday, extending towards the west on Thursday.
Afternoon humidity looks to remain below 15% each day along with
lighter northerly winds, 10 to 20 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Tuesday for
AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola/McCollum
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff